Thoughts from the Frontline

“Always remember that the future comes one day at a time.” – Dean Acheson “Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” – John Maynard Keynes

 “The growth model China has relied on for the last 30 years – one predicated on low-cost exports to the rest of the world and investment in resource-intensive heavy manufacturing – is unlikely to serve it well in the next 30 years.” – Gary Locke “In this 21st century world, some of our country’s most significant exports extend beyond goods and services. They also include innovation, knowledge, discovery, and healing.” – Kathleen Sebelius

“When goods don’t cross borders, armies will.” – Frequently attributed to Frédéric Bastiat “Free trade agreements are trade agreements that don’t stick to trade.” – Ralph Nader “The future has arrived. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” – William Gibson, circa 1993 in an interview (original version of the quote)

You made me promises, promises You knew you’d never keep Promises, promises Why do I believe? – Naked Eyes (1983)

“A bank is a place where they lend you an umbrella in fair weather and ask for it back when it begins to rain.” – Robert Frost “Money won’t create success. The freedom to make it will.” – Nelson Mandela

“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” – Vladimir Lenin “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.” – Winston Churchill

“Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.” – Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense, 2002 “Germany's Angela Merkel exudes an atmosphere of elderly exhaustion and pooped-out pessimism. Britain's David Cameron, though by nature exuberant, feels he has to look and sound glum. And France's leader, François Hollande, seems determined to drive every successful businessman out of the country.” – Paul Johnson “I stay in France. Better to be the queen of a village than a servant in a kingdom.” – Emmanuelle Béart

If buttercups buzz’d after the bee If boats were on land, churches on sea If ponies rode men and if grass ate the cows And cats should be chased into holes by the mouse If the mamas sold their babies To the Gypsies for half a crown If summer were spring And the other way ‘round Then all the world would be upside down! – 17th century English children’s song “There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen.” – Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, alias Lenin “For someone will say, ‘His [Paul’s] letters are severe and forceful, but his bodily presence is weak, and his speech contemptible.’”  – 2 Corinthians 10:1 and 10

“This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt “Each generation imagines itself to be more intelligent that the one that went before it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.” – George Orwell

“A lost election can have the jolt of a drop through the gallows door, leading to a dark night of the soul in which the future presses down like a cloud that will never lift.” – James Wolcott  “Recession is when a neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours.” – Ronald Reagan

Somehow in the last few months I found myself going from merely concerned about developed-world markets to outright advocating defensive positions. I thought some of the presentations at my Strategic Investment Conference would cheer me up. They did not.

At the conclusion of my conference yesterday, I did a number of interviews and then made my way a few miles home, collapsed into my favorite chair, and thought back over the myriad of ideas, the whirlwind of friends, and the just general all-around fabulous time I had experienced over the past four days.