Thoughts from the Frontline

Official inflation data, while imperfect in many ways, at least has the advantage of being consistently imperfect. This lets us make comparisons across time. The magnitude may be off, but the direction is usually right (except at unusually sharp turns like 2020).

A challenge in writing a weekly letter like this is that the economy never stops. Important data keeps accumulating, whether I write about it or not.

“Freedom of speech” is a beautiful phrase, strong, optimistic. It has a ring to it. But it’s being replaced in the discourse by “disinformation” and “misinformation,” words that aren’t beautiful but full of the small, pettifogging, bureaucratic anxiety of a familiar American villain: the busybody, the prohibitionist, the Nosey Parker, the snoop.

Two weeks ago, I began reviewing Martin Gurri’s important book, The Revolt of the Public, with this framework:

Last week, I said I would continue writing about Michael Gurri’s important book, The Revolt of the Public. It turns out giving a proper review of not just the book but all of the comments about the book will require more than a few days’ writing. I am going through almost 100 pages of new comments and quotes from the book and other essayists.

“All over the world, elite institutions from governments to media to academia are losing their authority and monopoly control of information to dynamic amateurs and the broader public. This book, until now only in samizdat (and Kindle) form, has been my No. 1 handout for the last several years to anyone seeking to understand this unfolding shift in power from hierarchies to networks in the age of the internet.”

I remember traveling as a young boy on long trips and asking my parents, “Are we there yet?” I was later punished for this annoying behavior by having my own children ask me the same question over and over.

Labor Day weekend finds me in far northwest British Columbia, fishing with 29 of my readers. The conversations are deep and fascinating, and it should be no surprise that politics and markets are brought up more often than not. Labor Day is traditionally when most Americans, other than us political junkies, actually begin noticing politics.

There was an historically large revision to the unemployment data this week, which was even worse than the headline when you dig into the actual numbers. On top of that, there is some “behind the numbers” data on inflation, which is typically not talked about, that will have a big impact on the Fed decision, not to mention traders and mortgages. This all has implications for the economy and maybe even for the election. While it's not quite Sophie's Choice, it's still not easy for the Fed.

In basketball and other sports, a “head fake” means the player moves their head as if they are about to turn left or right, but then doesn’t do so. This can fool an opposing player into moving the wrong way.

I can't let this month pass without noting a significant anniversary: This is the 25th year I’ve been writing Thoughts from the Frontline. The first few issues were lost to the electronic gods and my lack of technical prowess back then. That quickly changed. You can visit the archive and see every issue since January 2001 (including, trust me, some I would like to remove). That's roughly 5 million words, not counting 7 (soon to be 8) books, numerous papers and articles, speeches, emails, and more. Someday I should learn to type.

I am just a poor boy