Dear Reader,

This week, I spoke with longtime friend Jared Dillian, former Wall Street trader, financial writer, and proponent of sentiment investing. His contrarian letter, The Daily Dirtnap, is read by thousands of market participants and high-net-worth investors.

In this week’s Global Macro Update, we discuss the Fed’s mixed-message press conference and what Powell’s comments really mean… why he feels we could be on the cusp of a new bull market… the sector Jared believes will lead a market rally... how sentiment trading works in practice... and much more. His take is out-of-consensus, which is why you should listen. 

You can access the full transcript of this week’s interview by clicking here.

The video of my full conversation with Jared Dillian is below.

The Midterm Election Boost

Since 1962, the S&P 500 has had a 16.3% average return the year after a midterm election. Compare that to a -1% average for the year leading up to a midterm election.

History suggests that the specific outcomes of midterm elections—whether seats are flipped or the opposing party is taking the House or Senate—are less important than the mere fact that elections are held.

Source: US Bank

So, will we soon be in a bull market again? Will the Fed continue to raise rates? What opportunities should investors look for in fixed income? Jared and I cover these and many more questions.

But first, our market recap...

A Quick Look at the Markets This Past Week…

Gold was down .35% to $1,634.

The average 30-year mortgage rate fell 1.8% to 6.95%.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries increased 2.84% to 4.12%.

The S&P 500 decreased 4.6% to 3,720.

Bitcoin was down 1.6% at $20,258.

Oil was up .23% at $88.11/barrel for WTI.

And now...

This Week’s Global Macro Update Interview

Click here or on the screenshot below to watch now…

Click the image above to watch Global Macro Update now

Alternatively, you can click here to read the transcript of this week’s interview.

Jared has agreed to give Global Macro Update readers a special offer. To get Jared’s unique, insightful market commentary 255 days a year, click here for a discount to his service, The Daily Dirtnap.

Thank you for reading Global Macro Update.

Sincerely,

Ed D’Agostino
Publisher, Mauldin Economics

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