Happy Fourth of July! I hope you’re enjoying a long holiday weekend. That’s what I am doing, so this letter will be a little different.
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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.
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