Thoughts from the Frontline

Weather forecasters tell us what kind of weather we should expect. They can be wrong, but their short-term outlooks are generally reliable. The old joke that economists exist to make weathermen look good is funny because it has a ring of ironic truth.

It was an amazingly short week, punctuated by making 20 gallons of chili, serving almost 300 of my neighbors, and then recovering the next day, which didn’t leave a lot of time for in-depth analysis and forecasts. I’m sure you will be happy with the shortened letter as we cover some of the main events of last year and the ones that will have the most impact this year. A few will surprise you. Let’s jump in.

As I said last week, I am working on a book outlining five different theories on historical cycles and how they all seem to “climax” around 2030. I’m also very concerned that around that time (if not before), we will see the bond market begin reacting to the increasingly large national debt. I came across the word “polycrisis” this week, and while the context was different, the concept of multiple significant crises all coinciding is useful.

As longtime readers know, I am working on a book outlining five different theories on historical cycles and how their predicted “climaxes” all occur around 2030. I’m also very concerned that around that time (if not before) we will see the bond market react badly to the fast-growing national debt. While my poor editors at Wiley are very concerned with my delivery being somewhat behind schedule, I really am making progress.

Energy is everything. Or, if Einstein was right, you and I are just energy in material form. Accelerate us to lightspeed squared and we might become something else.

Ever notice how “home” is so important to our holiday traditions? It’s hard to imagine Christmas without images of a fireplace, a tree, some food, and rooms with festive decorations. Families gather in such rooms to form lifelong bonds and memories.

The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years? This week, in what I hope is a short Thanksgiving letter, I will talk about why that is simultaneously one of the most important and irrelevant questions you should be thinking about as we come into the holiday season.

Politicians and think-tank wonks of all stripes love to condemn government “waste, fraud, and abuse.” But saying it isn’t hard. Who is the opposition? No one says we need more waste, fraud, and abuse. We’re all 100% agreed all three are bad.

Two weeks ago, I opened this letter by noting the election uncertainty, once over, would give way to a different uncertainty about what comes next. That’s where we are now.

I went to bed “early” on election night, around 10:30 pm. We are in the five months of the year where Puerto Rico is one hour ahead of Eastern time, and nothing I was seeing made me think it would be an early night. And by that I meant 3 or 4 am. I woke up as usual, made my coffee and fired up my iPad to see the news. It was quite a stunner.

Anyone else ready for the election to be over? This uncertainty is exhausting, no matter how you want it to end. But sadly, it won’t really end. We will just transition to a different uncertainty over what will happen next. I will offer my thoughts on the election at the end of this letter, after setting the stage.

Here in the US, people are obsessed with the impending election. It is perhaps the World’s Largest Guessing Game. We can look at polls and make our best guesses, but no one really knows what will happen. We just have to wait for more data which will (hopefully) be forthcoming November 5 or soon afterward.