Over My Shoulder

Alexander Ineichen: IR&M Update, Sept. 30

By John Mauldin

October 2, 2014

Time to check out the momentum.

Speed read: S&P 500 potentially mispriced (page 20); China mathematically toast (page 63); the next crisis potentially worse (page 67).
Summary: Overall, changes have a negative bias; again. (page 2)
Top-down: Global economic momentum is improving. (page 3)
Earnings: Earnings estimates, on a global level, are stalling a bit. (page 5)
Business sentiment: Peaked in  May and has been falling ever since. (page 9)
Consumer sentiment: Peaked in June and has been falling ever since. (page 10)
Flation risk: Borderline deflationary; both CPI and PPI still falling. (pages 71-72)
Financial risk: Nearly all financial risk gauges are rising. (page 74)
Sovereign risk: Rising mainly in emerging markets. (page 75)
Trivia: Bond bear markets outside of investors' collective memory. (page 83)

Download - IRM_Update_2014_Sep_30.pdf

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