I have been on a semi-reading break for the last few weeks, focusing on other projects and issues, but am now back in Dallas and working through a mountain of reading, so expect to get a small flurry of Over My Shoulder pieces over the next two weeks as I catch up.
 
This first one is from our old friend Charles Gave, who is making a counterintuitive argument about China and the dollar. The general consensus – or at least the median consensus – from the rather high-level meetings  I had while in Hong Kong suggests that we could see a further depreciation of the renminbi by 4-5% this year. There were a few who thought we could see a much larger drop this year; but in any case, as I have contended for quite some time, the renminbi is going to be challenged and the direction is going to be downward, much to the consternation of China-bashing politicians here in the US. But the Chinese have no choice.