Over My Shoulder

David Rosenberg: Employment pops—on Venus, not Mars!

August 9, 2017

It's Camp Kotok Week, day two!

Fishing buddy and close friend David Rosenberg is famous for Breakfast with Dave, his daily letter, in which he analyzes almost everything. In keeping with the theme of Over My Shoulder looking at pieces from friends I have shared Camp Kotok with over the years, here is a good piece from Rosie this morning. It's an analysis of last month's employment numbers, and Rosie comes up with a few odd facts:

And while Household employment was up 345,000 jobs, it was all part-time – full-time positions actually shrank by 54,000 last month. Since April, full-time jobs are down 66,000 while part-time is up 302,000 – that is not the most effective way to generate personal income growth, that much is for sure. In fact, total work-based incomes only rose 0.3% compared to 0.5% in June, holding the YoY pace at 2.8% which actually is no better now than it was in the spring of 2010 to the summer of 2011 when the economy was so soft that the Fed was pumping endless liquidity into the financial system. Go figure….

Not that I'm a sociologist, but there seems to be a gender gap under way here as well. My recommendation is not to tell males how great the job situation is because employment for us guys fell 17,000 in July and is down 146,000 since April. The women are clearly wearing the pants in the family as female employment was up 362,000 in July alone and up by 503,000 since April. We haven’t seen something like this happen in at least five years, but Venus clearly has a smile on her face.

Download - Breakfast_with_Dave_2017_08_04.pdf