This is a news story about a former Fed governor saying that the Fed may have to raise rates faster than anyone thinks, once they get started. Given that there is a whole board-full of former Fed governors, you can usually find someone who will say any given thing. But this is not just any old former Fed governor; this is Frederic Mishkin, who was one of the chief economists at the Fed prior to becoming a governor, and who authored the study the Fed did correlating the yield curve and recessions, along with numerous other important Fed papers. I've talked with them over the years, and he is very bright.

Interestingly, I had lunch yesterday with Harvey Rosenblum, former chief economist of the Dallas Fed (he recently resigned). We have been friends and fishing buddies for years. He is wondering whether the Fed might not raise rates at a slower pace, maybe even by 1/8 increments (which is a possibility he suggested in his research many years ago), but start earlier in the spring rather than waiting for the June meeting. Reading other Fed economists and talking with serious Fed watchers and former governors, I think about the only thing we can safely conclude is that the FOMC really doesn't know what it's going to do yet. At a minimum, they're going to have to remove the words for a considerable period of time from the statement that is issued after each Fed meeting. Harvey doesn't think they will do it next week, but I don't see how you can wait very long to remove that statement. I mean, removing it at one meeting and starting to raise rates the very next meeting is not exactly in keeping with the spirit of the meaning of the words a considerable period of time. Just saying.