Over My Shoulder

IR&M Flash Update, Sept. 1, 2015

September 1, 2015

Ineichen update on momentum in these markets:
 
Flash update summary
GDP growth – Italy revised upwards. (page 2)
Business sentiment – A US indicator falls by 1.2 standard deviation and surprised negatively. (page 3)
PMI – Generally, PMIs are falling and disappointing. (pages 4-5)
South Korea – Export growth fall sharply by 14.7%. (page 6)
Equities – 51% of all equity markets are in a bear market. (page 7)
Current situation for S&P 500 is similar to July 2011 or October 2007. (page 8)
A comparison of the current S&P 500 with 2011 implies that the elevated volatility will last a bit longer. (Volatility is clustered.) (page 9)
US consumer sentiment is much better today than when compared to 2011. (page 10)

Download - IRM_Flash_Udate_2015_Sep_1.pdf