Ok, Peter Boockvar joins the forecast brigade. Peter is a SERIOUS Fed econ type, works with all-star Larry Lindsey, and is one of the smartest people I know. I love to find him at the dinner table with the guys because I ALWAYS learn a lot.

Not a long read, typical of Peter, who gets right to the point in his writing (unlike your humble analyst).

“Bottom line on everything, when oil falls 50% in 6 months with the decline in other commodities that takes the CRB index to within spitting distance of the March ’09 lows, the yield curve flattens dramatically, utility stocks go parabolic, high yield spreads widen out, and emerging market currencies, bonds and stocks get hammered, something not right is going on that should not be ignored by US focused equity investors. As I said once before, s**t happens when QE ends (I don’t believe the BoJ and ECB can fully replace Fed QE) and what follows in 2015 with respect to the Fed, rate hikes come if the economy gets better and don’t if the economy gets worse (maybe we only get the first hike or two if negative consequences follow). What path would you choose as an investor?”