I can't post this too much as it is prop trading data with some good overnight commentary. These are never-sleep type of guys. While for traders it will all be fascinating, what I want you to focus on is the middle part on China. My associate Worth Wray lived in China for a time and is writing next week's TFTF while I am flying to Argentina. The wheels may not be coming off in China, but they are getting a little loose. They seem to be trying to deal with the outrageous debt issuance and the fact that it simply cannot be paid back out of cash flows. Much was Ponzi-style, borrowing money to buy copper, and they would then borrow money against their copper holdings from another lender to lend money to someone else (trusts, usually) at higher rates to make the spread. Sound familiar? This was MASSIVE, not one-off.

Now we see signs of real problems. Forget hard landings, what happens when China growth slows down to global demand growth? When copper trades down and then does not rebound? When iron ore drops below $100? Will it hold there?

Things happen at the margin. Attention must be paid. I can only write so much each week, so Over My Shoulder gives me a chance to bring these things to your attention. I think I need to use this service as a way to comment more, and will in the future.