Air Taxis Are the Next-Gen Way to Travel
Tesla’s robotaxis are hitting the streets in Austin, Texas. If you’re in one of four test markets, you might have already shared the road with a self-driving Waymo. Amazon isn’t far behind with its Zoox cars.
After years of far-off promises from Big Tech, the market for robotaxis is becoming saturated with competition.
Media stories about self-driving taxis are interesting, but they are missing a bigger story. One that is about to play out and will have a profound impact on urban life: air taxis.
In places like LA, New York, Miami, London, or Dubai, those who can pay for convenience will find it. Helicopters are already an option for individuals looking to skip the traffic. Blade operates a helicopter service between JFK airport and midtown Manhattan, with a seat as low as $195. Not cheap, but less than I expected.
Electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) will bring congestion-free transport to more destinations at a lower cost. Occasional eVTOL trips will soon become the norm for thousands of urban dwellers.
Air taxis will soon replace both helicopters and Ubers for many short passenger trips. If you could pay an extra $100 to skip New York traffic and get to the airport in minutes—not hours—would you? Heading to Cape Cod, the Hamptons, or coastal Maine for the weekend? You can sit in traffic for several hours, or jump in an eVTOL for $150 and be sipping your Friday beverage of choice in 20 minutes. I think a lot of people are going to take that option.
Source: Joby
People are already comfortable paying for the convenience of a taxi or an Uber—self-driving or not. If you’ve been in an Uber lately, you know they are no longer “cheap.” I was recently offered a $55 ride to go from mid-town Manhattan to Astoria, a 20-minute trip. The last time I was in New York, the same Uber cost half of that. When I asked my daughter what’s going on, she told me that Uber’s prices have gone through the roof in New York.
This is a good setup for eVTOLs. Major airlines like Delta are already partnering with eVTOL companies to explore this next avenue of travel.
Today, let’s look at three pioneers in the eVTOL space. If eVTOLs spark your interest and you decide to invest in them, let me know. I’m interested to hear your thoughts on which name appealed to you most.
Uber’s Ridesharing Pick: Joby Aviation (JOBY)
Joby’s goals are ambitious for a 7.2-billion-dollar startup. The company wants to vertically integrate and control every part of the eVTOL niche, from building vehicles and servicing the fleet to operating its own ridesharing services. Until Joby builds out a ridesharing app to offer direct services, the company will rely on its partnerships with Uber and Delta Air Lines.
Uber’s long-held plans for aerial ridesharing manifested in its Uber Elevate division, which launched the Uber Copter service in 2019 in New York City. Despite being limited to traditional helicopter rides, the service proved consumer interest in short-distance air taxis. Joby bought out Uber Elevate in 2020 to venture into the ridesharing space.
Joby’s management team carries diverse experience. CEO JoeBen Bevirt started out in robotic lab systems before turning to camera tripods. Chief Product Officer Eric Allison has even developed an autonomous air taxi before—Wisk’s “Cora”.
Joby’s board includes a former FAA administrator and executives from Google, Toyota, and Southwest Airlines. Toyota itself has invested $894 million in Joby and holds 9.95% equity. Joe Lonsdale of 8VC was an early backer. Here’s an interview between Lonsdale and Joby’s CEO:
Joby’s ridesharing platform won’t work without a wide network of infrastructure partnerships. It has some exposure to commercial and private aviation bases through Atlantic Aviation, though this reach is limited to the US.
Vertical takeoff and landing eliminates the need for a runway. Anywhere you could land a small helicopter (or a huge drone), you’d be able to land an air taxi. We’re not far off from being able to take an electric air taxi from the top of a Manhattan skyscraper and land on a heliport halfway across the city in minutes, without ever stepping out into the street.
So far, Joby has the most capable eVTOL, with top speeds of 200 mph and a range of up to 150 miles on a single charge. Its batteries were lab-tested to last for over 10,000 flight cycles. There’s room for four passengers plus the pilot, though this could change if Joby advances in autonomous flight.
|
Primed for Private Flight: Eve Holding Inc. (EVEX)
If you want to make inroads into eVTOLs, it helps to have the backing of the world’s third-largest manufacturer of commercial aircraft.
Brazil’s Embraer spun off its “urban air mobility” division in 2020, creating Eve Air Mobility. World-class management gives Eve a great head start, with board members coming from General Dynamics, Rolls-Royce, and BAE Systems—one of the largest US aerospace and defense contractors.
Embraer also has a global support network of service centers, field support reps, training centers, and warehouses. Vertically integrated companies like Joby will need to either build out these service facilities or partner with other providers to keep its eVTOL fleet running. Eve already has 24/7 worldwide coverage through Embraer.
Eve’s vehicle is similar to other planned eVTOLs, with capacity for four passengers and up to 90% less noise than comparable helicopters. Its 60-mile range is substantially shorter than the competition but could still meet the needs of most urban markets. Eve’s goal of autonomous flight would allow for up to six passengers in one vehicle. Driverless cars are already a huge mental adjustment for many people. How would you feel boarding a pilotless eVTOL?
Source: Eve Air Mobility
Even with Joby’s ties to Uber and Delta, Eve could edge out a first-mover advantage thanks to its partnership with Signature Aviation. Signature is an all-in-one “Fixed-Base Operator” that provides hangar storage, fueling, maintenance, and flight planning. This means Eve is already connected to the world’s largest network of private air terminals, with more than 200 locations in 27 countries.
Access to private terminals around the world could be Eve’s biggest advantage over Joby. Where will Joby+Uber land their eVTOLs? I could see Joby forming an agreement with Delta, but then you’re mixing fast, short-distance travel with already-congested long-distance terminals. Eve already has its private terminals and service network built out on a global scale.
Eve is also working on an “Urban Air Traffic Management” system to choreograph its fleet of eVTOLs through dense airspace. This technology is critical for a safe transition to unmanned flight. With this, Eve is looking to be more than just an eVTOL manufacturer. According to company filings:
We expect to offer eVTOL service and support capabilities to UAM fleet operators, and we plan to offer our UATM systems primarily to air navigation service providers, fleet operators and vertiport operators.
To date, Eve has 2,800 vehicle orders from 28 initial customers, worth about $14 billion. With Embraer’s reach and backing, Eve doesn’t carry the same level of financial instability as a more typical startup.
Targeting Defense & Cargo: Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR)
Archer focuses on the cargo, logistics, defense, and military use cases for eVTOLs, which sets it apart from Joby and Eve. Archer’s Midnight eVTOL can transport four passengers plus a pilot at speeds of up to 150 mph.
NASA is interested in Archer’s battery tech for space applications. These batteries can recharge quickly: The Midnight would only need to recharge for about 10 minutes after a 20-mile flight before it’s back in the air. That makes this aircraft well-optimized for short-distance, back-to-back routes.
Source: Archer
Archer Defense has been a US Department of Defense partner since 2021. The company has a $148-million deal with the Air Force to adapt its eVTOLs for military purposes. Archer also partnered with Anduril Industries, which specializes in autonomous defense systems, to create hybrid-propulsion VTOL aircraft.
Like Joby, Archer manufactures its aircraft in the US, which can be expensive. Eve may have an edge here thanks to cheaper production in Brazil, plus Embraer’s global supplier network.
Each eVTOL maker has its strengths. Joby’s aircraft leads the pack in speed and potentially capacity. Joby wants to be the Uber of the skies—and with Uber’s support, it very well could be. But the company could overextend its resources by vertically integrating the manufacturing process and an in-house ridesharing platform.
Eve’s worldwide industry connections could be an advantage. Its aircraft prioritize safety over speed, though they’re still much quicker than a street taxi would be. Archer has the weight of the US Department of Defense behind it, and the company is exploring opportunities beyond just commercial passenger travel. Plus, it has the best batteries in this space right now.
What are your thoughts on air taxis? Would you ever take an “aerial Uber?” Let me know which of these three companies appeals to you most. I’d like to see your predictions for the eVTOL market.
|
Thank you for reading.
Ed D’Agostino
Publisher & COO
Scroll down for comments.