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The 10th Man Archive, October 2020

Never Really Get There
  • October 1, 2020

Never Really Get There

If you’re an observer of markets, economics, and politics, there is literally nothing better in the world than talking to drivers.

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What Will Happen
  • September 24, 2020

What Will Happen

I was involved in a political discussion recently, after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

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If We Last That Long
  • August 20, 2020

If We Last That Long

Think back to 2011, when you would see gold commercials on Fox News. Goldline, Lear Capital, Rosland Capital.

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The Right Side
  • August 13, 2020

The Right Side

If you’re on the wrong side of just one of these trades, you’re done. But what if you’re on the right side?

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No Dollar Shortage
  • July 30, 2020

No Dollar Shortage

A while back, there was a convoluted theory going around Twitter about how there was a dollar shortage. I didn’t understand the theory, no matter how hard I tried.

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Sentiment
  • July 16, 2020

Sentiment

Occasionally I give talks at financial institutions on mental health in the workplace. At one of these, during the Q&A, a woman asked if I was an empath.

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All Summer in a Day
  • July 9, 2020

All Summer in a Day

I have always been an avid music collector. I had a collection of about 700 CDs, and a few hundred cassette tapes, before everything went digital in 2008.

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The Inflation Question
  • July 2, 2020

The Inflation Question

Last week, I got a call on The Jared Dillian Show asking about inflation. How do you protect yourself against it?

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Complaint Department
  • June 18, 2020

Complaint Department

A few days ago, the Federal Reserve announced that it would buy a “broad portfolio” of corporate bonds, to go along with its ETF purchases.

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The Saddest Day Ever
  • June 4, 2020

The Saddest Day Ever

There is a Twitter account called hedonometer that measures the average happiness of everyone’s tweets.

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A Gentle Singularity
  • April 23, 2020

A Gentle Singularity

Spot oil prices briefly went negative earlier this week. That didn’t surprise anyone working in the oil industry. 

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I Pity the Fool
  • April 2, 2020

I Pity the Fool

I struggle to see how things would be fundamentally different with Bernie Sanders as president, except for higher taxes.

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Shelter in Place
  • March 26, 2020

Shelter in Place

I am writing to you from my home library, since I am no longer working in my office in downtown Myrtle Beach.

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Markets in Turmoil
  • March 5, 2020

Markets in Turmoil

People like to make fun of the fact that whenever CNBC breaks out the “Markets in Turmoil” special, markets rally. Not this time!

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An Orgy of Speculation
  • February 27, 2020

An Orgy of Speculation

I may not be good for much, but I am good for detecting a peak of speculative activity. As of the end of last week, we were there.

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Another Way to Think About Interest
  • February 13, 2020

Another Way to Think About Interest

First, please enjoy the music I played at the InsideETFs opening reception a few weeks ago.  Don’t worry, it’s pretty chilled-out—good music to work to.

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The Cost of Pessimism
  • January 30, 2020

The Cost of Pessimism

If you’ve ever spent time hiking the Appalachian Trail, you know that hikers give nicknames to each other. My nickname: Pessimist.

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The TSLA Rodeo
  • January 16, 2020

The TSLA Rodeo

In the book on short squeezes, what just happened with TSLA will probably be in the first chapter.

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Everything You Wanted to Know about Gold but Were Afraid to Ask
  • January 9, 2020

Everything You Wanted to Know about Gold but Were Afraid to Ask

I remember where I was the first time I heard about gold. I was in my 1995 Toyota Tercel in downtown San Francisco, listening to the radio. Usually I listened to the Razor and Mr. T on KNBR 680, but for some reason I had the news on. The announcer mentioned that gold was up that day, to $265 an ounce.

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It Was a Good Run
  • January 2, 2020

It Was a Good Run

I predict that 20% of colleges and universities will shut down or merge in the next 10 years, and probably more.

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The Politics Survey Results
  • November 27, 2019

The Politics Survey Results

Happy Thanksgiving! I’m going to give you some results from the survey we gave you a couple of weeks ago. Whatever you do, don’t talk about it at Thanksgiving dinner. 

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Journalisming
  • November 14, 2019

Journalisming

When it comes to reporting on politics, do you find the media more or less trustworthy than 10 years ago?

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Epstein Killed Himself
  • November 7, 2019

Epstein Killed Himself

There is a burgeoning conspiracy theory that Jeffrey Epstein was murdered in his jail cell. Although it’s not really burgeoning, is it? Most people really believe this. I think once a majority of people believe a conspiracy theory, it becomes fact.

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The Birth of Common Sense
  • October 31, 2019

The Birth of Common Sense

It wasn’t my dream to become a radio host. (It wasn’t my dream to become a financial newsletter writer, either.) You never know how things will turn out.

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Not Enough Dots on Your Dice
  • October 24, 2019

Not Enough Dots on Your Dice

Charles Schwab wants to offer investors the ability to trade fractional shares of stock. You know, in case you don’t have enough money for one share of stock.

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No Pullbacks
  • October 16, 2019

No Pullbacks

The Federal Reserve has embarked on QE4—sort of. They are buying Treasury bills.

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Headed South
  • October 10, 2019

Headed South

The other day I was sitting in a new restaurant in town, eating some chicken wings in the bar, killing time before my radio show.

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Buying Real Estate in 2006
  • September 26, 2019

Buying Real Estate in 2006

Pretend the year is 2006, and I am writing The 10th Man at Mauldin Economics.

I tell you that I am publishing a how-to guide on investing in Real Estate. It’s not a guide that offers any sort of opinion on the direction of housing prices—it’s just basic stuff so you can be informed if you really do want to invest in real estate.

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The Bond Q&A
  • September 5, 2019

The Bond Q&A

I’m pretty sure this is the first ever Q&A issue we’ve done in The 10th Man. Since I started the Bond Series, a not insignificant number of emails have been landing in my inbox, week after week.

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Dispatches From Bond-Land
  • August 15, 2019

Dispatches From Bond-Land

By this point, you have probably heard that $15 trillion of bonds are trading with negative yields, which represents 25% of all sovereign bonds outstanding. Lots of people are indignant about this—but it’s no use getting mad at the market.

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Take Small Bites
  • August 8, 2019

Take Small Bites

The first thing I read about investing wasn’t actually a book. It was a pamphlet that I got somewhere, 23 years ago.

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Interest Rates Are Low
  • August 1, 2019

Interest Rates Are Low

Interest rates are currently low. That was by far the biggest concern mentioned in the bond survey. People are drowning in worry about low interest rates and their effect on bonds. So let’s address that.

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Survey Says
  • July 25, 2019

Survey Says

Thousands of you took my bond survey (thank you for doing that).

Many of you have been very naughty.

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Shiny Rocks
  • July 18, 2019

Shiny Rocks

I have always secretly wanted to work at a precious metals bullion dealer. I love gold. And silver and platinum. I love them philosophically, and I also just like shiny rocks.

But if you think about it, trading metals is a really weird business.

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The Curious Case of the ZIRP NIRP Gold Bugs
  • July 11, 2019

The Curious Case of the ZIRP NIRP Gold Bugs

President Trump recently nominated Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She is the United States director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which I had never heard of until her nomination.

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The Trump Train
  • June 27, 2019

The Trump Train

Newsletter writers invite terrible peril when they mention Trump in an issue. He’s the most polarizing figure of all time. If you say something good about him, half of your readership will hate you. If you say something bad about him, the other half will hate you. It is a no-win situation. So newsletter writers, myself included, never write about him.

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Piece of Crap Car
  • June 13, 2019

Piece of Crap Car

I have a new focus on dumb news. My new analyst, Joe Jones, spends an hour or two a day searching for the best in dumb news. I also think that USA Today is the best newspaper in the world. There is wisdom in idiocy.

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Recessions Are Forbidden
  • May 30, 2019

Recessions Are Forbidden

We haven’t had a recession in a while in the United States. The last one was pretty bad, so it stands to reason we might want to avoid a repeat of that experience.

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Abundance
  • May 16, 2019

Abundance

I want to talk about today is the concept of abundance, where there is always more than enough in your life. You have enough for the basics—food, clothes, a roof over your head. You have enough for some luxuries—a nice watch, a nice car, some toys. And you have enough that you can give lots of it away.

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Retirement Idiots
  • May 9, 2019

Retirement Idiots

Uncle Sam doesn’t give out too many freebies when it comes to tax time, except in the form of retirement plans.

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Marriage and Money
  • May 2, 2019

Marriage and Money

People fight about money all the time. It has been quantified. A third or more of all arguments in marriages are about money.

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I Will Never Retire
  • April 25, 2019

I Will Never Retire

The inspiration for this week’s 10th Man came from Tyler Cowen’s book excerpt in the New York Post, titled “Why Capitalism Is Good For Your Health.” I suggest you read it.

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Relentlessness
  • April 18, 2019

Relentlessness

It’s a holiday week, and the markets aren’t even moving a centimeter, so we’re going to do a little navel-gazing.

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The Long Right Tail
  • April 11, 2019

The Long Right Tail

Portfolio strategies like Modern Portfolio Theory and others tend to assume that market returns follow a normal distribution.

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An End to Class Warfare
  • April 4, 2019

An End to Class Warfare

There is a lot of talk about socialism in the United States—much of it coming from people who are pretty well-off, relatively speaking.

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I’ve Made a Huge Mistake
  • March 21, 2019

I’ve Made a Huge Mistake

When properly motivated, people are capable of saving and investing. Almost nobody is motivated to do it at age 23. Pretty much everyone, at some point in their life, will end up in catch-up mode.

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A Balanced Budget
  • February 14, 2019

A Balanced Budget

The Green New Deal is silly and isn’t worthy of our attention. The broader point it makes—that we can have anything we want if the Federal Reserve extends credit—is.

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Public Service Loan Forgiveness
  • January 24, 2019

Public Service Loan Forgiveness

The Public Service Loan Forgiveness program was signed into law by the Bush Administration in 2007. The idea was to give financial relief to people who had spent a lot of money on higher education, but chose to work in less financially-rewarding jobs. This included people at any level of government service, including 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organizations.

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Get Your Act Together
  • January 10, 2019

Get Your Act Together

I saw an interesting stat the other day.

According to Axios, “5% of Americans with checking accounts rack up more than 50% of all the country’s overdraft and bounced check fees.”

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Cars
  • January 3, 2019

Cars

Buying a car is a pretty terrible experience. The last car I bought was in August of 2017—it took about six hours, the salesman was a bit like the pool boy in Extract, and I had to sit through the extended warranty rigamarole.

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The Ant and the Grasshopper
  • December 27, 2018

The Ant and the Grasshopper

I’m sure you’ve heard the fable of the ant and the grasshopper. The ant busted his ass all year growing some grain to store for the winter, while the grasshopper was laying about, playing the fiddle.

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Unrealistic Return Assumptions
  • December 13, 2018

Unrealistic Return Assumptions

There is no shortage of stupid people tricks in the financial markets, but probably the worst thing people can do is to have unrealistic return assumptions.

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Tipping for Dummies
  • December 6, 2018

Tipping for Dummies

Tipping is a personal finance topic that does not get a lot of attention. In fact, most personal finance experts turn people into lousy tippers. After all, if you go out to eat 500,000 times, and you stiff the server for $2 each time, you will have $1 million and can retire at age 35 and eat canned peaches. Or something like that.

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The Smell of Money
  • November 29, 2018

The Smell of Money

I am the child of two public servants. Growing up, I thought making $80,000 a year was a big deal.

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Mutual Funds vs. ETFs
  • November 8, 2018

Mutual Funds vs. ETFs

My name is Jared Dillian, I used to be a big deal in the ETF industry. And I’m here to tell you to that I like open-end mutual funds better than ETFs—mostly because ETFs are misused.

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