The 10th Man, July 2019
July 18, 2019
I have always secretly wanted to work at a precious metals bullion dealer. I love gold. And silver and platinum. I love them philosophically, and I also just like shiny rocks.
But if you think about it, trading metals is a really weird business.
July 11, 2019
President Trump recently nominated Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She is the United States director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which I had never heard of until her nomination.
June 27, 2019Newsletter writers invite terrible peril when they mention Trump in an issue. He’s the most polarizing figure of all time. If you say something good about him, half of your readership will hate you. If you say something bad about him, the other half will hate you. It is a no-win situation. So newsletter writers, myself included, never write about him.
June 20, 2019I’m bouncing off of Kashana Cauley’s mini-rant in GQ about Suze Orman and the personal finance “industry” in general.
June 13, 2019I have a new focus on dumb news. My new analyst, Joe Jones, spends an hour or two a day searching for the best in dumb news. I also think that USA Today is the best newspaper in the world. There is wisdom in idiocy.
June 6, 2019Income investing is hard.
May 30, 2019We haven’t had a recession in a while in the United States. The last one was pretty bad, so it stands to reason we might want to avoid a repeat of that experience.
May 23, 2019When you check your brokerage statement, how does it make you feel?
May 16, 2019I want to talk about today is the concept of abundance, where there is always more than enough in your life. You have enough for the basics—food, clothes, a roof over your head. You have enough for some luxuries—a nice watch, a nice car, some toys. And you have enough that you can give lots of it away.
May 9, 2019Uncle Sam doesn’t give out too many freebies when it comes to tax time, except in the form of retirement plans.
May 2, 2019People fight about money all the time. It has been quantified. A third or more of all arguments in marriages are about money.
April 25, 2019The inspiration for this week’s 10th Man came from Tyler Cowen’s book excerpt in the New York Post, titled “Why Capitalism Is Good For Your Health.” I suggest you read it.
April 18, 2019It’s a holiday week, and the markets aren’t even moving a centimeter, so we’re going to do a little navel-gazing.
April 11, 2019Portfolio strategies like Modern Portfolio Theory and others tend to assume that market returns follow a normal distribution.
April 4, 2019There is a lot of talk about socialism in the United States—much of it coming from people who are pretty well-off, relatively speaking.
March 28, 2019Lot of strong feelings on gold. Some people think it has no utility and people only like it because it’s shiny. Other people have pretty reasoned arguments about how gold maintains purchasing power across the centuries.
March 21, 2019When properly motivated, people are capable of saving and investing. Almost nobody is motivated to do it at age 23. Pretty much everyone, at some point in their life, will end up in catch-up mode.
March 14, 2019You have some money. Do you pay down the mortgage, or do you invest in the stock market?
March 7, 2019How much money do you need to retire? Stop trying to think about retirement in terms of absolute numbers. It is all relative.
February 28, 2019
Headline in Bloomberg the other day: “Millennials Are Facing $1 Trillion in Debt.”
February 21, 2019
I saw a headline last week:
“More Americans Are Behind On Their Car Loans Than Ever Before”
February 14, 2019The Green New Deal is silly and isn’t worthy of our attention. The broader point it makes—that we can have anything we want if the Federal Reserve extends credit—is.
February 7, 2019Somewhere in the last 30-40 years, we have become economically illiterate.
January 31, 2019People get really stressed out about money. Money makes people cry! Money causes people to lose sleep. Money causes marriages to hit the skids.
January 24, 2019
The Public Service Loan Forgiveness program was signed into law by the Bush Administration in 2007. The idea was to give financial relief to people who had spent a lot of money on higher education, but chose to work in less financially-rewarding jobs. This included people at any level of government service, including 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organizations.
January 17, 2019
Let’s say you are trying to get out of debt. What debt should you pay off first?
January 10, 2019
I saw an interesting stat the other day.According to Axios, “5% of Americans with checking accounts rack up more than 50% of all the country’s overdraft and bounced check fees.”
January 3, 2019Buying a car is a pretty terrible experience. The last car I bought was in August of 2017—it took about six hours, the salesman was a bit like the pool boy in Extract, and I had to sit through the extended warranty rigamarole.
December 27, 2018I’m sure you’ve heard the fable of the ant and the grasshopper. The ant busted his ass all year growing some grain to store for the winter, while the grasshopper was laying about, playing the fiddle.
December 20, 2018I have said this before: the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the greatest financial innovation of the 20th century. Perhaps of all time.
December 13, 2018There is no shortage of stupid people tricks in the financial markets, but probably the worst thing people can do is to have unrealistic return assumptions.
December 6, 2018
Tipping is a personal finance topic that does not get a lot of attention. In fact, most personal finance experts turn people into lousy tippers. After all, if you go out to eat 500,000 times, and you stiff the server for $2 each time, you will have $1 million and can retire at age 35 and eat canned peaches. Or something like that.
November 29, 2018I am the child of two public servants. Growing up, I thought making $80,000 a year was a big deal.
November 15, 2018The main problem with most investors is that they have a very small imagination.
November 8, 2018My name is Jared Dillian, I used to be a big deal in the ETF industry. And I’m here to tell you to that I like open-end mutual funds better than ETFs—mostly because ETFs are misused.
November 1, 2018Even though I am not high on budgets, I am high on radical saving, so I like a simple heuristic such as save as much as humanly possible or save until it hurts.
October 25, 2018Occasionally, friends or family want to borrow money. How should you handle this?
October 18, 2018
The goal is to be financially independent, right? By “independent,” we mean: not dependent on another person or another entity for our financial well-being.
October 11, 2018A friend of mine from a former life resurfaced and asked if I would look at his portfolio, which I was happy to do.
October 4, 2018
Let’s explore one of the most sensitive subjects in personal finance:Charitable giving.
September 27, 2018This question needs to be addressed, especially after a long bull run in the stock market. It was also asked a lot in the personal finance survey you guys filled in.
September 20, 2018I have a huge desire for liquidity. Above and beyond the discussions we already had about cash.
September 13, 2018Passive income is an illusion that people will pursue until insanity or death.
September 6, 2018If one person in a marriage is a CF and the other is a high roller, you might say they have different philosophies on money.
August 30, 2018Last week, we said we were going to talk about prepaying mortgages. So let’s talk about prepaying mortgages.
August 23, 2018
Is your home an investment?
Some say yes.Some say no.
August 16, 2018
The following are both true statements:
- You should save until it hurts.
- Money is meant to be enjoyed.
August 9, 2018
Let’s think about what debt is, philosophically speaking.Debt allows you to enjoy a higher standard of living today, at the expense of having a lower standard of living tomorrow.
August 2, 2018
Debt is bad. The interest you pay is unproductive. It is flushing money down the toilet. Flusssssshhhhhhhhh.
July 26, 2018First, we are going to talk about actual hard currency. I am an advocate of having more.
July 19, 2018Let me uncomplicate things for you. For the majority of people, all you need is a bank account. And yes, majority means >50%.
July 12, 2018Last week we talked about wanting to make money. Let’s say you have the desire. How do you go about doing it?
July 5, 2018Most people want more money. More money is better than less money, right? That is the conventional wisdom.
June 28, 2018
We Wall Street folks are the world’s most out-of-touch people.
June 21, 2018Donald Trump is proposing really big tariffs, and the stock market doesn’t like it.
June 14, 2018
Seattle is being mismanaged. Readers from Seattle probably know what I am talking about. Conservatives (I suppose you could include me in that category) would say that Seattle’s city government will send them down the path of Detroit, but I think it’s a little more complicated than that.
June 7, 2018
All we get is whining and complaining from the bears all the time. What is it they want?
May 31, 2018Everyone knows that Toys “R” Us went bankrupt. Very sad. And largely preventable (we will save the private equity conniption for another week).
May 24, 2018I’ve said the title of this issue a few times before in The 10th Man. When rates go up sharply, stuff blows up, because lots of people are negatively exposed to higher rates.
May 10, 2018Individual investors generally don’t think about liquidity. You send a market order for 200 shares of something, it gets filled instantaneously, no problem.
May 3, 2018I read a study once that showed that cab drivers usually go home at the end of their shift. Given the opportunity to keep driving and make more money, they almost never do. Once they put their 8 hours in, they are done and they go home.
April 26, 2018The conventional trading wisdom is that you’re supposed to add to winning trades and cut losing ones.
April 19, 2018
Back in June of last year, I called the top of the stock market. Right here. As you know, it was not the top. The top happened about seven months (and 16%) later.
April 12, 2018In 1999 I was driving back and forth between school, the trading floor, and work. I had a CD Discman that I hooked up through one of those adaptor things to the cassette player in my 1995 Toyota Tercel. The Discman and a bunch of miscellaneous CDs sat on the passenger seat, and if I hit the brakes, all of it would go crashing onto the floor
April 5, 2018There are few things better than 1990s-era Bjork. Every late-wave Gen Xer’s crush. With the passage of time, she gets better and better. Her song Human Behavior should get you warmed up for this week’s issue.
March 29, 2018
If you are a trader, you love volatility. You need things to move around a lot, so you can buy low and sell high, and buy low and sell high, and do it over and over again. This seems obvious.
March 22, 2018First, thanks for all the comments you sent about last week’s video issue of The 10th Man. I’m glad so many of you found it helpful. Normal service resumed this week, so let’s talk… baseball!
March 15, 2018
Special edition this week—the first-ever video issue of The 10th Man!
March 8, 2018
Usually I don’t put explicit trade ideas in The 10th Man, because, well, you should pay for ‘em! This idea is free, so it is probably worth what you paid for it.
March 1, 2018
There is a generation gap in finance. You might immediately think of Neil Howe’s work on generational studies, with Generation X and Millennials, but that’s not what we’re talking about.
February 22, 2018
Hedge fund guys aren’t well-liked, which I find interesting. Most people don’t even know what a hedge fund is. And if they knew, they probably wouldn’t care. Who cares about running money for Richie Rich?
February 15, 2018
As most of you know, I used to be in the Coast Guard. I served from 1992-2001, closely coinciding with Bill Clinton’s time in office.
February 8, 2018Let’s talk about the crash, or the mini-crash, or the dislocation, or whatever you want to call it. Six percent intraday is getting close to crash territory, especially when you’ve seen no volatility over the last two years.
February 1, 2018Now would be a good time to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already, because stuff is about to get real.
January 25, 2018There was a big bull market in the early 1970s, led by a group of fifty large cap stocks known as… drum roll… the “Nifty Fifty.”
January 18, 2018Longtime readers know my timeline by now. I graduated from the Coast Guard Academy in 1996, went to sea for two years, and then settled in the San Francisco Bay Area to work on the Coast Guard Pacific Area staff and go to grad school.
January 11, 2018This is a story I have never told before and will never tell again.
January 4, 2018I got a call from my former assistant a few weeks ago—she’s off working at an accounting firm, after successfully completing a year of service at The Daily Dirtnap. She’s saving real money for the first time, in her 401(k), and wanted to know what to invest in.
December 21, 2017
To find the market’s biggest weakness, a good place to look is at the most crowded movie theater with the smallest exit.
December 14, 2017Demand curves are usually downward-sloping because people will buy more of a product when it is cheaper and less of it when it is more expensive. See, you just passed 11th grade Economics.
December 7, 2017
Some people are better with money than others. Is it nature or nurture?
November 30, 2017I’m sure you’ve heard the fable of the ant and the grasshopper. The ant busted his ass all year growing some grain to store for the winter, while the grasshopper was laying about, playing the fiddle. When winter came around, the grasshopper had no food, so he went to the ant’s house to beg for some. The ant told him to beat it, and the grasshopper starved to death. The end.
November 16, 2017The latest issue of Street Freak came out on Tuesday. Street Freak is a bit of an aggressive stock-picking newsletter, where we come up with a new idea every month. I try to keep the ideas a secret—if you want them, you have to subscribe! But I’m going to let you in on this month’s idea for free. Are you ready?
November 9, 2017
I have been a bond bear for a while. Back in the summer of 2016, I spoke at a small conference out in San Diego. My topic: how interest rates were going to go up.
November 2, 2017
Jay Powell has been named the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Provided he survives the confirmation process, it is a done deal.
October 26, 2017I am going to melt your brain today. Vanguard has an ETF that allows you to get long world stock markets. The ticker: VT.
October 19, 2017
You’ve probably noticed that I’ve spent a lot of time over the past six weeks talking about ETFs.
October 12, 2017On the grand scene of financial innovations, the exchange-traded fund was fairly innocuous at first. It took a good 15 years of slow realization for people to figure out how disruptive they would ultimately be. “Exchange-traded fund” isn’t even a very good name, since closed-end funds were also exchange-traded.
October 5, 2017My first encounter with a smart beta ETF was a WisdomTree product over ten years ago. As you may know, WisdomTree uses index weighting methods other than market capitalization for its ETFs. This one in particular was weighted by earnings or dividends—I can’t remember.
September 28, 2017There are currently about 2,000 ETFs in existence. Many of them are useless.
September 21, 2017As you might have heard, there is a massive price war going on in ETF-land. Issuers are falling over themselves in the race to the bottom in fees.
September 14, 2017Pretty cheap to trade these days—$7 or whatever. Inconsequential. Costs less than lunch.
September 7, 2017Here’s the least original statement of 2017: There are a lot of different ETFs.
August 31, 2017
First, do yourself a favor and follow me on Twitter. Dry humor putting in new highs daily.
August 24, 2017
If you want a good chortle, you should go back and watch Hackers from 1995. Early Angelina Jolie! Also, one of the best soundtracks imaginable, with early electronic music from Underworld, Orbital, and The Prodigy.
August 17, 2017
I typically stay away from politics in The 10th Man. Besides, you probably get enough of it on Facebook!
August 10, 2017
If you are in the business of forecasting the stock market, you have to think about a concept known as spot-dependency.
August 3, 2017
Time for some crash theory.
July 27, 2017
Lots of people ask me for good beginner books about finance.
July 20, 2017
The market is up 2% since I called the top a month ago. This financial analyst gig ain’t easy!