The 10th Man, August 2020

What Makes a Good Investor

August 6, 2020

Sometimes people ask me, what makes a good investor?

No Dollar Shortage

July 30, 2020

A while back, there was a convoluted theory going around Twitter about how there was a dollar shortage. I didn’t understand the theory, no matter how hard I tried.

Inflation and the Right Tail

July 23, 2020

It sure seems like we’re going to get inflation.

Sentiment

July 16, 2020

Occasionally I give talks at financial institutions on mental health in the workplace. At one of these, during the Q&A, a woman asked if I was an empath.

All Summer in a Day

July 9, 2020

I have always been an avid music collector. I had a collection of about 700 CDs, and a few hundred cassette tapes, before everything went digital in 2008.

The Inflation Question

July 2, 2020

Last week, I got a call on The Jared Dillian Show asking about inflation. How do you protect yourself against it?

The Perfect Portfolio

June 25, 2020

All my life, I’ve been in search of the perfect portfolio.

Complaint Department

June 18, 2020

A few days ago, the Federal Reserve announced that it would buy a “broad portfolio” of corporate bonds, to go along with its ETF purchases.

The Truth about Volatility

June 11, 2020

This is a bet that the S&P 500, currently at 3,200, will reach 4,000—by the end of the year. A 25% move in six months.

The Saddest Day Ever

June 4, 2020

There is a Twitter account called hedonometer that measures the average happiness of everyone’s tweets.

Casino Closed

May 28, 2020

Sports bettors are bored, and they’ve turned to trading stocks.

It’s All a Matter of Perspective

May 21, 2020

The reality is: You can choose whatever reality you want.

It’s Time to Start Thinking about the Right Tail

May 14, 2020

Most of you know what a normal distribution is, and that it has a tail.

Worrying about ETFs

May 7, 2020

As long as I can remember, people have worried about ETFs.

The Toxic Avengers

April 30, 2020

Some malfunctioning ETFs have been in the news lately.

A Gentle Singularity

April 23, 2020

Spot oil prices briefly went negative earlier this week. That didn’t surprise anyone working in the oil industry. 

The Plunge Praise Team

April 16, 2020

The financial commentary community is pretty small, so I try not to step on any toes.

Human Ingenuity

April 9, 2020

It is very, very hard to be short human ingenuity.

I Pity the Fool

April 2, 2020

I struggle to see how things would be fundamentally different with Bernie Sanders as president, except for higher taxes.

Shelter in Place

March 26, 2020

I am writing to you from my home library, since I am no longer working in my office in downtown Myrtle Beach.

Volatility for Dummies

March 19, 2020

I am a big fan of the “For Dummies” books.

Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate Environment

March 12, 2020

For months—years—I’ve been extolling the virtues of portfolios that are primarily comprised of bonds. Especially in retirement.

Markets in Turmoil

March 5, 2020

People like to make fun of the fact that whenever CNBC breaks out the “Markets in Turmoil” special, markets rally. Not this time!

An Orgy of Speculation

February 27, 2020

I may not be good for much, but I am good for detecting a peak of speculative activity. As of the end of last week, we were there.

Level 10 of the Videogame

February 20, 2020

The financial markets are a MMORPG.

Another Way to Think About Interest

February 13, 2020

First, please enjoy the music I played at the InsideETFs opening reception a few weeks ago.  Don’t worry, it’s pretty chilled-out—good music to work to.

The Best Writer You Never Heard Of

February 6, 2020

My favorite writer in the world is Barry Hannah.

A lot of people get this newsletter, but I bet not many of you have heard of him.

The Cost of Pessimism

January 30, 2020

If you’ve ever spent time hiking the Appalachian Trail, you know that hikers give nicknames to each other. My nickname: Pessimist.

A Problem of Accumulation

January 23, 2020

People complain about the Fed. Endlessly. Incessantly.

I get the feeling that we give the Fed too much credit.

The TSLA Rodeo

January 16, 2020

In the book on short squeezes, what just happened with TSLA will probably be in the first chapter.

Everything You Wanted to Know about Gold but Were Afraid to Ask

January 9, 2020

I remember where I was the first time I heard about gold. I was in my 1995 Toyota Tercel in downtown San Francisco, listening to the radio. Usually I listened to the Razor and Mr. T on KNBR 680, but for some reason I had the news on. The announcer mentioned that gold was up that day, to $265 an ounce.

It Was a Good Run

January 2, 2020

I predict that 20% of colleges and universities will shut down or merge in the next 10 years, and probably more.

The Opiate of the Masses

December 19, 2019

The stock market is the opiate of the masses.

Financial Time Dilation

December 12, 2019

You ever notice—

That some memories tend to be stronger than others?

All I Need Is the Air That I Breathe

December 5, 2019

I spend a lot of time thinking about the information that I consume. Do you?

The Politics Survey Results

November 27, 2019

Happy Thanksgiving! I’m going to give you some results from the survey we gave you a couple of weeks ago. Whatever you do, don’t talk about it at Thanksgiving dinner. 

The Intellectual Dark Web

November 21, 2019

Things used to be so simple.

You buy a stock, the government cuts taxes, the stock goes up.

Journalisming

November 14, 2019

When it comes to reporting on politics, do you find the media more or less trustworthy than 10 years ago?

Epstein Killed Himself

November 7, 2019

There is a burgeoning conspiracy theory that Jeffrey Epstein was murdered in his jail cell. Although it’s not really burgeoning, is it? Most people really believe this. I think once a majority of people believe a conspiracy theory, it becomes fact.

The Birth of Common Sense

October 31, 2019

It wasn’t my dream to become a radio host. (It wasn’t my dream to become a financial newsletter writer, either.) You never know how things will turn out.

Not Enough Dots on Your Dice

October 24, 2019

Charles Schwab wants to offer investors the ability to trade fractional shares of stock. You know, in case you don’t have enough money for one share of stock.

No Pullbacks

October 16, 2019

The Federal Reserve has embarked on QE4—sort of. They are buying Treasury bills.

Headed South

October 10, 2019

The other day I was sitting in a new restaurant in town, eating some chicken wings in the bar, killing time before my radio show.

How to Talk to Your Kids About Bonds

October 3, 2019

I’ll start with an underappreciated fact about millennials—they really like investing in real estate. Even more than stocks.

Buying Real Estate in 2006

September 26, 2019

Pretend the year is 2006, and I am writing The 10th Man at Mauldin Economics.

I tell you that I am publishing a how-to guide on investing in Real Estate. It’s not a guide that offers any sort of opinion on the direction of housing prices—it’s just basic stuff so you can be informed if you really do want to invest in real estate.

Introducing… The Bond Masterclass

September 19, 2019

Hi everyone.

You’ve probably noticed that we’ve spent an inordinate amount of time recently talking about bonds. 

How to Talk to Your Parents about Bonds

September 12, 2019

Baby boomers, man.

Before I begin, a good rule of thumb for anything I write: don’t take anything personally.

The Bond Q&A

September 5, 2019

I’m pretty sure this is the first ever Q&A issue we’ve done in The 10th Man. Since I started the Bond Series, a not insignificant number of emails have been landing in my inbox, week after week.

How to Build a Bond Portfolio

August 29, 2019

Since I started this 10th Man bond series, you guys seem to be split broadly into two camps.

Bonds and Bond Funds

August 22, 2019

Do I buy individual bonds or bond funds?

Dispatches From Bond-Land

August 15, 2019

By this point, you have probably heard that $15 trillion of bonds are trading with negative yields, which represents 25% of all sovereign bonds outstanding. Lots of people are indignant about this—but it’s no use getting mad at the market.

Take Small Bites

August 8, 2019

The first thing I read about investing wasn’t actually a book. It was a pamphlet that I got somewhere, 23 years ago.

Interest Rates Are Low

August 1, 2019

Interest rates are currently low. That was by far the biggest concern mentioned in the bond survey. People are drowning in worry about low interest rates and their effect on bonds. So let’s address that.

Survey Says

July 25, 2019

Thousands of you took my bond survey (thank you for doing that).

Many of you have been very naughty.

Shiny Rocks

July 18, 2019

I have always secretly wanted to work at a precious metals bullion dealer. I love gold. And silver and platinum. I love them philosophically, and I also just like shiny rocks.

But if you think about it, trading metals is a really weird business.

The Curious Case of the ZIRP NIRP Gold Bugs

July 11, 2019

President Trump recently nominated Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She is the United States director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which I had never heard of until her nomination.

The Trump Train

June 27, 2019

Newsletter writers invite terrible peril when they mention Trump in an issue. He’s the most polarizing figure of all time. If you say something good about him, half of your readership will hate you. If you say something bad about him, the other half will hate you. It is a no-win situation. So newsletter writers, myself included, never write about him.

Yes, the Personal Finance Industry Is a Scam

June 20, 2019

I’m bouncing off of Kashana Cauley’s mini-rant in GQ about Suze Orman and the personal finance “industry” in general.

Piece of Crap Car

June 13, 2019

I have a new focus on dumb news. My new analyst, Joe Jones, spends an hour or two a day searching for the best in dumb news. I also think that USA Today is the best newspaper in the world. There is wisdom in idiocy.

Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller

June 6, 2019

Income investing is hard.

Recessions Are Forbidden

May 30, 2019

We haven’t had a recession in a while in the United States. The last one was pretty bad, so it stands to reason we might want to avoid a repeat of that experience.

The F9 Problem

May 23, 2019

When you check your brokerage statement, how does it make you feel?

Abundance

May 16, 2019

I want to talk about today is the concept of abundance, where there is always more than enough in your life. You have enough for the basics—food, clothes, a roof over your head. You have enough for some luxuries—a nice watch, a nice car, some toys. And you have enough that you can give lots of it away.

Retirement Idiots

May 9, 2019

Uncle Sam doesn’t give out too many freebies when it comes to tax time, except in the form of retirement plans.

Marriage and Money

May 2, 2019

People fight about money all the time. It has been quantified. A third or more of all arguments in marriages are about money.

I Will Never Retire

April 25, 2019

The inspiration for this week’s 10th Man came from Tyler Cowen’s book excerpt in the New York Post, titled “Why Capitalism Is Good For Your Health.” I suggest you read it.

Relentlessness

April 18, 2019

It’s a holiday week, and the markets aren’t even moving a centimeter, so we’re going to do a little navel-gazing.

The Long Right Tail

April 11, 2019

Portfolio strategies like Modern Portfolio Theory and others tend to assume that market returns follow a normal distribution.

An End to Class Warfare

April 4, 2019

There is a lot of talk about socialism in the United States—much of it coming from people who are pretty well-off, relatively speaking.

People Watching from Mars Are Scratching Their Heads

March 28, 2019

Lot of strong feelings on gold. Some people think it has no utility and people only like it because it’s shiny. Other people have pretty reasoned arguments about how gold maintains purchasing power across the centuries.

I’ve Made a Huge Mistake

March 21, 2019

When properly motivated, people are capable of saving and investing. Almost nobody is motivated to do it at age 23. Pretty much everyone, at some point in their life, will end up in catch-up mode.

The Optimization Trap

March 14, 2019

You have some money. Do you pay down the mortgage, or do you invest in the stock market?

How Much Do You Need To Retire? Use The 30% Rule

March 7, 2019

How much money do you need to retire? Stop trying to think about retirement in terms of absolute numbers. It is all relative.

What Comes After a Trillion?

February 28, 2019

Headline in Bloomberg the other day: “Millennials Are Facing $1 Trillion in Debt.”

The Good News About Consumer Debt

February 21, 2019

I saw a headline last week:

“More Americans Are Behind On Their Car Loans Than Ever Before”

A Balanced Budget

February 14, 2019

The Green New Deal is silly and isn’t worthy of our attention. The broader point it makes—that we can have anything we want if the Federal Reserve extends credit—is.

Stupid Is as Stupid Does

February 7, 2019

Somewhere in the last 30-40 years, we have become economically illiterate.

How Not to Be Stressed About Money

January 31, 2019

People get really stressed out about money. Money makes people cry! Money causes people to lose sleep. Money causes marriages to hit the skids.

Public Service Loan Forgiveness

January 24, 2019

The Public Service Loan Forgiveness program was signed into law by the Bush Administration in 2007. The idea was to give financial relief to people who had spent a lot of money on higher education, but chose to work in less financially-rewarding jobs. This included people at any level of government service, including 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organizations.

Which Debt Do You Pay off First?

January 17, 2019

Let’s say you are trying to get out of debt. What debt should you pay off first?

Get Your Act Together

January 10, 2019

I saw an interesting stat the other day.

According to Axios, “5% of Americans with checking accounts rack up more than 50% of all the country’s overdraft and bounced check fees.”

Cars

January 3, 2019

Buying a car is a pretty terrible experience. The last car I bought was in August of 2017—it took about six hours, the salesman was a bit like the pool boy in Extract, and I had to sit through the extended warranty rigamarole.

The Ant and the Grasshopper

December 27, 2018

I’m sure you’ve heard the fable of the ant and the grasshopper. The ant busted his ass all year growing some grain to store for the winter, while the grasshopper was laying about, playing the fiddle.

We Are All Interest Rate Traders Now

December 20, 2018

I have said this before: the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the greatest financial innovation of the 20th century. Perhaps of all time.

Unrealistic Return Assumptions

December 13, 2018

There is no shortage of stupid people tricks in the financial markets, but probably the worst thing people can do is to have unrealistic return assumptions.

Tipping for Dummies

December 6, 2018

Tipping is a personal finance topic that does not get a lot of attention. In fact, most personal finance experts turn people into lousy tippers. After all, if you go out to eat 500,000 times, and you stiff the server for $2 each time, you will have $1 million and can retire at age 35 and eat canned peaches. Or something like that.

The Smell of Money

November 29, 2018

I am the child of two public servants. Growing up, I thought making $80,000 a year was a big deal.

Use Your Imagination

November 15, 2018

The main problem with most investors is that they have a very small imagination.

Mutual Funds vs. ETFs

November 8, 2018

My name is Jared Dillian, I used to be a big deal in the ETF industry. And I’m here to tell you to that I like open-end mutual funds better than ETFs—mostly because ETFs are misused.

Do I Need a Budget?

November 1, 2018

Even though I am not high on budgets, I am high on radical saving, so I like a simple heuristic such as save as much as humanly possible or save until it hurts.

Brother, Can You Spare a Dime

October 25, 2018

Occasionally, friends or family want to borrow money. How should you handle this?

Financial Codependence

October 18, 2018

The goal is to be financially independent, right? By “independent,” we mean: not dependent on another person or another entity for our financial well-being.

The Great Rebalancing

October 11, 2018

A friend of mine from a former life resurfaced and asked if I would look at his portfolio, which I was happy to do.

Karmically Speaking

October 4, 2018

Let’s explore one of the most sensitive subjects in personal finance:

Charitable giving.

What Should My Asset Allocation Be in Retirement?

September 27, 2018

This question needs to be addressed, especially after a long bull run in the stock market. It was also asked a lot in the personal finance survey you guys filled in.

Semper Gumby

September 20, 2018

I have a huge desire for liquidity. Above and beyond the discussions we already had about cash.

The Horror of Passive Income

September 13, 2018

Passive income is an illusion that people will pursue until insanity or death.

Till Death Do Us Part

September 6, 2018

If one person in a marriage is a CF and the other is a high roller, you might say they have different philosophies on money.

Is a Hot Dog a Sandwich? (Part 2)

August 30, 2018

Last week, we said we were going to talk about prepaying mortgages. So let’s talk about prepaying mortgages.

Is a Hot Dog a Sandwich? (Part 1)

August 23, 2018

Is your home an investment?

Some say yes.

Some say no.