Over My Shoulder

Breaking up is hard to Do

February 18, 2012

This is from my co-author of Endgame, Jonathan Tepper, your basic young (35ish) genius Rhodes-scholar type. I got his permission to let you read this, as he normally writes for a fairly exclusive list of high-end clients. Reading it will give you some idea of why I wanted to work with him. He made me look good. It is longish (53 pages) but will make good weekend reading. It is about the consequences of a eurozone break-up. He flouts the conventional wisdom and shows how it might work. You can read the summary at the beginning to get an idea, but I would suggest you read further to get some feel for the history of currency break-ups. The title says a lot: "A Primer on the Euro Breakup: Default, Exit and Devaluation as the Optimal Solution." Listen to the old Neil Sedaka standard while you read. :-) "SUMMARY Many economists expect catastrophic consequences if any country exits the euro. However, during the past century sixty-nine countries have exited currency areas with little downward economic volatility. The mechanics of currency breakups are complicated but feasible, and historical examples provide a roadmap for exit. The real problem in Europe is that EU peripheral countries face severe, unsustainable imbalances in real effective exchange rates and external debt levels that are higher than most previous emerging market crises. Orderly defaults and debt rescheduling coupled with devaluations are inevitable and even desirable. Exiting from the euro and devaluation would accelerate insolvencies, but would provide a powerful policy tool via flexible exchange rates. The European periphery could then grow again quickly with deleveraged balance sheets and more competitive exchange rates, much like many emerging markets after recent defaults and devaluations (Asia 1997, Russia 1998, and Argentina 2002)."

Download - February-2012-Eurozone-Breakup.pdf