Data problems
January 23, 2012
I very rarely post a Bloomberg piece, as I figure most of you have access; but this one is something you should have in the back of your mind. I am seeing similar reports in other places as to problems with seasonally adjusted data, as it is based on past models. It will all smooth out in the long run, but it may overstate the issue this quarter or even reverse later in the summer or last half of the year. As I keep saying, I know we have to use models, but people rely too much on them, as they think they are factual, when they are really just guesses based on past performance. And we know about past performance and projections...