I am back on the job after a long flight, missed trains, and jet lag here in Tuscany, and after a day spent with my kids here. Thanks to all the new subscribers of Over My Shoulder. You will start with a good piece: Don Coxe's latest missive. Don is one of those guys you know you just have to read – his accumulated wisdom is priceless. This is a little longer than most of the things I will post, but you can get through to the parts that will mean something to you. And feel free to write or comment. From the intro: "That melancholy outcome of money printing and profligacy explains our choice of title for this issue: these are Lady Macbeth’s words of despair at the outcome of their murderous kingship strategy—they broke the rules to get what they wanted, but this hasn't led to a secure, happy monarchy. This month we discuss the investment outlook, beginning with the new challenges to the Capital Asset Pricing Model, concluding with the significance of the sharp divergence within commodity markets, as foodstuffs remain strong amid pervasive weakness elsewhere, and the dollar bear market shows signs it may be ending."