Greek Restructuring Scenarios
May 9, 2011
This is a little longer than normal, but very interesting. It is research from HSBC on what Greek restructuring might look like. Let's call this the "kick the can down the road" view, but one that is likely to be attempted initially. The key is whether the Greek voters are going to swallow even renegotiated debt at some point, but as long as they can keep the actual funding going and some semblance of government survivability, it is likely to be among the first scenarios. But then think about what this looks like for Ireland, Portugal, Spain, etc. For those interested in exactly how it might be structured, this could be useful. Not sure I buy their "It's safe to buy Greek short-term debt" thesis, but Greece bears watching as the first snowball that could start the avalanche.