OK, this is long but very thought-provoking. And in response to some questions, I really do read all this stuff for 2012. Sometimes one insight in 30 pages is worth the time. At least for me, but that is my day job. And Napier is always good for more than just one good idea. "The move to divert domestic savings to shore up government finances has begun. It will require liquidation of assets to fund public debt. These assets are likely to be those of other states, including government debt. This will create intense financial economic and political friction. Just as Smoot-Hawley intensified the Great Depression, this “national capitalism” will worsen the current downturn. Uncertainty over which Eurozone nations will be able to ratify the fiscal compact of 9 December will amplify the impact. Europe is the epicentre, but China’s move towards a balance-of-payments deficit creates similarly deflationary dynamics."