Swimming in liquidity
February 1, 2012
I thought this piece from Nouriel was rather well-done. He called it, creatively, "What’s on Nouriel’s Mind: Swimming in Liquidity but No Safe Shore in Sight." "In the past few weeks, liquidity taps have been turned on globally. The Fed has effectively committed to zero interest policy rates well into 2014 and has moved toward a formal inflation target. It is also hinting at the likelihood of QE3. The ECB has flooded the banking sector with three-year liquidity, which has reduced tail risk for the refinancing of banks. The major emerging markets (EMs) like Brazil and India have been easing more aggressively than expected. The bulls in the markets argue that this shift in policy toward a global easing bias, combined with the fact that risk assets have already priced in bad news, will allow markets in risky assets to rally in coming quarters. What this argument neglects is that growth will remain anemic and subpar at best in developed markets (DMs) and that global policy officials continue to kick the can down the road, but will eventually have to face the pain and commit to deleveraging, spending cuts and reforms to get back on the path to potential growth. Kicking the can down the road does not restore economic growth, and does not lead to a stable equilibrium in an economy that already has problems tied to deleveraging, solvency and artificially stimulated prices of goods like housing. The longer we wait for actual signs of robust economic growth before we stop the policy stimulus, the emptier the magazine will be when we need policy bullets."