A note while sitting in London waiting for a plane to South Africa. Read the Bill Gross piece first. Then read this from David Zervos, commenting on Minsky and how his work informs Gross's views. And he comes up with an optimistic point, like the one I made two years ago. We are going to see the rise of private credit replace much of what we think of as the bank landscape. This will take time but will ultimtately be good for the economy and for investors who can access this field. "So we are trying to grow this economy with one hand tied behind our back. But that doesn't mean the entire economy will stagnate. It just means that credit will have to be allocated from non-bank sources (the now famous "shadows"). High yield corporate bond markets will flourish. Foreign holders of US risk free assets will switch to hard US asset investments. Money managers, private equity firms and hedge funds that do not have financially repressive guidelines will also take risk and prosper. There are headwinds from banks, but there are tailwinds from alternative credit allocation sources. We will still see investment in real risky endeavors – and the positive real returns will generate positive real growth."