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When the Trend Is No Longer Your Friend

When the Trend Is No Longer Your Friend

Special edition this week—the first-ever video issue of The 10th Man!

Why now? Because we’ve had a regime change in the markets, and the last regime lasted for years. I think that warrants a special edition.

If you’ve been reading The 10th Man for a while, you’ll remember me saying that the low volatility regime is over. Volatility is back, and will be for some time.

But as much as the market was in a low-vol regime, it was also in a trend-following regime. And that regime is also over… but people don’t seem to realize.

They don’t really understand (or remember) that the market follows different regimes—that you can have a trend-following regime followed by a mean-reverting regime. Investors who follow trends will go through a lot of pain in a mean-reverting regime.

And if you think you’re not a trend follower… you just might be, without knowing. That’s part of what I discuss in this video issue. It’s important viewing.   

Click below to watch (you can get a transcript too).

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To make things even easier, here’s some of what you’ll be finding out, and where you can find it in the video:

  • What the new market regime looks like, and why “the trend is no longer your friend” (1:36)
  • Why index fund investors could be in trouble without realizing it (2:30)
  • What kind of investor you need to be in this new environment (3:58)
  • The smartest thing investors can do right now (6:33)
  • My thoughts on the next market correction… when, how big, and why (7:34)
  • Ed D’Agostino, Mauldin Economics publisher and COO, weighing in with a pretty great story about his own personal portfolio—interesting lesson here (10:16)

I encourage you to go and watch it. I hope you enjoy it—but more importantly, I hope it gets you thinking about what you might need to change in your portfolio so that this new regime doesn’t take you by surprise.

New game, new rules.


Watch “The Bond King” reveal what this means for equity markets and investors’ portfolios.

Access these insights and dozens more with your SIC 2018 Virtual Pass for a $400 discount!


One Final Thing

I was at the Strategic Investment Conference last week, and it was a great experience. I talk a little bit about DoubleLine Capital founder Jeff Gundlach’s presentation in the video, but another big highlight was Passport founder John Burbank.

In fact, his presentation sparked off a trade idea, which I told my subscribers at The Daily Dirtnap about in the very next issue I emailed out. It has all the makings of a classic Daily Dirtnap trade.

Moral of the story? Go to conferences!

Or do the next best thing—pick up a Virtual Pass, and watch it all from your couch. Probably less tiring, and you get all the good stuff.

The Virtual Pass is still available now (and at a big discount), but won’t be for long.

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We welcome your comments. Please comply with our Community Rules.

March 24, 2018, 6:09 p.m.

To the point and spot on. As an ex interbank fx trader and a ‘basic contrarian’ I have been reading the 10th Man for the last 12 months with a lot of interest and agreement. Your insightful analyses and real life comparisons are fun to read, easy to understand for the average reader and fundamentally sound.

The 10th Man - Jared Dillian


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