Lacy Hunt and I were talking a month or so ago, and he noted that the rise in durables was not about a recovering economy but the end of the accelerated-depreciation tax credit. The numbers for January came out today and were ugly. As Philip Miller notes: "There was some mention that this month’s result was a consequence of a tax credit that expired. There is some evidence for this fact given that the past two months new orders were up 3.2% and 4.2% respectively. If that is not the explanation, then this was a terrible report and needs to be taken note of." Small two-pager, but the charts are the key, especially the second one.