Don't look now, folks, but "US consumers have a lot more deleveraging to do." So sayeth Will Denyer of GaveKal. And it gets worse: "At best, household leverage is only about half way back to trend. At worst, structural changes in the US demographic picture mean prior upward trends in leverage need to be thrown out, into that same garbage bin that now contains prior assumptions of a persistent uptrend in US house prices.... In a nutshell, we may not even be halfway through the necessary deleveraging process in the US." He also works over the interesting point that US consumer credit has been growing, not shrinking, in recent quarters. Can you guess which consumer segment is largely responsible? This is the usual thorough, thought-provoking (not to say chain-yanking) research from GaveKal -- normally available to well-paying subscribers only.