• August 19, 2025

Does the Fed Matter Any More?

Almost everyone thinks the Fed will cut rates next month because job growth is weakening

• April 15, 2025

The Fed Can’t Save You This Time

Say what you will about the economy, the 2020s haven’t been boring.

• March 18, 2025

The DOGE Recession?

Just three months ago, a US recession seemed unlikely.

• January 21, 2025

The Recession You Missed

Remember the scary recession of 2024?

• July 16, 2024

Things Fall Apart

Writers who want to describe sweeping global change often quote the W.B. Yeats poem.

• April 16, 2024

No More Recessions?

Unexpected questions are valuable. 

• June 20, 2023

Labor Market Math

Quite a few experts think the US economy will enter recession soon. If so, someone forgot to tell the labor market.

• December 19, 2022

A New Kind of Recession

• March 15, 2022

Frying Pans and Inflation Fires

“Out of the frying pan, into the fire” isn’t just a trite old saying. Economically, it may be a great metaphor for 2022.

• January 11, 2022

Omicron Kills Output, Spares Jobs

The dramatically-named Omicron COVID-19 variant is moving fast. If you don’t know anyone who’s had it (or been infected yourself), you probably will soon.