• March 10, 2023

Thousand-Word Equivalents

If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.

• January 6, 2023

Year of the Pause

“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.” — Seneca, the Elder

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.” 
— H.L. Mencken

• December 9, 2022

Recession Scale

Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t.

• October 7, 2022

Where Are the Workers?

By now it should be clear Federal Reserve leaders intend to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Their recent speeches and interviews all underline this. Specifically, they want to reduce the strong consumer demand that has been keeping goods and service prices elevated. Interest rate hikes are merely a tool they have to that end—and not a very efficient one, either.

• September 9, 2022

Labor Mysteries

Politicians talk about “jobs, jobs, jobs” because a steady income keeps people happy and (mostly) voting for incumbents. Carville once told us, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and it always has been. Economies in recession are usually bad for those in power.

• August 5, 2022

Weirdness Factors

It’s a recession! No, not yet! I see these arguments everywhere and I’m already tired of them. For those who believe it is not yet a recession, I will make a deal with you. The third quarter is likely to be negative. When we have three quarters of a recession in a row, just give it up.

• September 3, 2021

Human Capital Losses

Remember math class? Let me give you a quick refresher.

• March 26, 2021

The 1970s Never Ended

Big economic storms are rare and usually end quickly, but they tend to have long-lasting effects. Today I want to talk about a storm 50 years ago that still affects us now. Important things happened in the 1970s.