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Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, July 2022

A Weird Recession
  • July 29, 2022

A Weird Recession

Professional economists, perhaps tired of being asked, years ago formed a committee to officially mark the beginning and end of recessions, the NBER (Nation Bureau of Economic Research) committee considers a variety of data, but its final decision is subjective.

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Hubris at the Fed
  • July 22, 2022

Hubris at the Fed

Finding just the right word brings great pleasure to writers like me. As I think and write about the Federal Reserve, the word “hubris” keeps coming to mind.

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Forgotten Lessons
  • July 15, 2022

Forgotten Lessons

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” is a well-known quote that’s also incomplete. You can remember the past vividly and still have to repeat it. This happens when, for instance, powerful people forget (or ignore) important lessons that affect everyone.

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John Bull and Two Percent
  • July 8, 2022

John Bull and Two Percent

The economics profession has long had a vigorous academic argument over “natural” interest rates. What would rates be if we could somehow remove all the subjective actors—central banks, commercial lenders, government agencies—that conspire to set them? What would nature do if we left it alone?

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Time Has a Price
  • July 1, 2022

Time Has a Price

One benefit of human progress is the way we gain “common knowledge” that was once anything but common. We observe basic facts—for example, water boils if placed over a flame—and then build on them. Boiling water took us to steam engines and then much more. But that path wasn’t always obvious.

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