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Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, November 2006

It’s All About Your Time Frame
  • November 24, 2006

It’s All About Your Time Frame

It's a slow Thanksgiving Friday, and I decided I would rather be writing to you than shopping in the malls. In fact, I would pay good money not to go to the malls today. Which my kids think I am because they pointed out on Thanksgiving the amazing values I am missing, particularly on items they think should be on my Christmas shopping list. And I agree, I am surprised by the level of discounting, and believe those prices will be there in a few weeks when I actually get around to...

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The Coming Collapse in Housing
  • November 17, 2006

The Coming Collapse in Housing

This week I am in New Orleans at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and quite frankly with so many good friends that I have given myself permission to not write a letter this week. But you will be getting an even better writer than me for this week's letter.

I arranged for good friend Gary Shilling to condense his 40 page letter on the housing market for you. While this letter will print long (for those of you who print the letter out), it is mostly charts, which Gary excels...

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Honey, I Created A Bubble
  • November 10, 2006

Honey, I Created A Bubble

We have been told for months that the next interest rate move by the Federal Reserve is dependent upon what the data tells us prior to each meeting. If the data tells us that inflation is too high and/or the economy too strong, the Fed will continue in its pause mode or maybe even hike rates. If inflation comes down and the economy begins to soften, the next interest rate moves will be down.

But that begs the questions, "How reliable is the data?" and "How does one interpret the...

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The Return of the Muddle Through Economy
  • November 4, 2006

The Return of the Muddle Through Economy

With each new slice of economic data the past few weeks, the bond market decided that the economy was getting softer and the potential for the Fed to start cutting rates was growing. Rates have been drifting down for the past few weeks. And then came today's unemployment numbers. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The bond market simply threw up. Yields on the 10-year bond rose a breathtaking 12 basis points in just a few hours.

But wait a minute. Why should the bond market worry...

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