Thoughts From the Frontline, November 2005

Our Brave New World, Part Two

November 25, 2005

Is it different this time? Can it be that trade deficits do not matter? Or is our collective debt going to end in a period of financial crisis and tears? Is Alan Greenspan right when he says periods of low risk premiums end in woe for the participants?

For readers in the middle of this conversation, we are in a series on the debate held at a London restaurant between Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave (father and son) and Bill Bonner. The Gaves openly declared that "This time it's...

Hoping It’s Different This Time

November 18, 2005

What type of returns can we expect from the stock market? Do I think we are still in a secular bear market, even as the market tries to make new highs? What causes long term market cycles? Is there a psychological component to them? (Answer: yes.) And can we make any predictions about the future of the stock market? All this and more in this week's letter.

Last week we started a series on the debate between GaveKal and Bill Bonner on whether "It's different this time," centering on...

This Time It’s Different

November 11, 2005

"For over ten years now, a wide majority of market strategists and economists from respected investment banks (Morgan Stanley, Dresdner...), a large number of upscale financial publications (The Economist, The Financial Times... ), highly respected consulting firms (Lombard Street Research, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, Gloom Boom Doom... ) have drawn on historical parallels to warn us that the expansion of the past decade in US consumption was both unsustainable and likely to end in...

Thoughts on Pensions and Retirement

November 4, 2005

How bad is the pension fund issue. Is it a crisis as the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) claims? Or is the American Benefits Council right when they say the problems are blown out of proportion? And depending on your assumptions, they could both be right. Examining this debate will provide a useful springboard as we examine retirement issues you may be facing.

But first, last week I promised a special announcement. Ready to ship and in a bookstore near you is my new book...