Thoughts From the Frontline, June 2002

As the Walrus Said

June 28, 2002

"The time has come," the Walrus said, "to talk of many things." This week we talk about whether we are in a housing bubble, look at stock and bond market directions, the problems with the dollar and much more. It is that semi-annual time when I make predictions (which is the term for educated guess), and then watch to see what actually occurs.

This week I begin with a look at the housing market. I probably get more questions on housing and real estate than on any topic, other than stocks....

Blind Dogs and Janus Managers

June 21, 2002

In the 17 years from the end of 1964 to the end of 1981, the Dow gained exactly one-tenth of one percent. In the bull market which followed from 1982 to the peak in March of 2000, the Dow rose from 875 to 11,723, a spectacular rise of 1,239% or over 13 times from the starting point.

We all remember what a difficult time that first period was. You had three recessions, oil shocks, Viet Nam, stagflation, the collapse of the Nifty Fifty, Watergate, short term interest rates rising to 18%, gold...

Re-Setting the Investment Scales

June 14, 2002

The news all seems so bleak sometimes. But is it? If my view that we are in a Muddle Through Economy is to prevail, then we surely must be seeing some good news somewhere. In this issue, I find some good news, some bad news and highlight a recent study which shows that the run in small cap stocks may be coming to an end. And much more, of course. Let's jump right in.

The Dollar Teddy Bear Market

June 7, 2002

Every week, as I sit down to write, I think about the scores of research reports and articles I have read in the past few weeks. Is there a new theme? What trend is developing? What is the picture coming into view from the pieces of the puzzle at which I get to look? What have I seen that I should bring to your attention?

Usually one or two things jump out, and this week is no exception. A number of articles, all about the dollar, and when taken in concert, are beginning to concern me. The...