Thoughts From the Frontline, January 2003

Truth in Advertising: The Fed Fails the Test

January 31, 2003

This week I had the pleasure of talking with Nobel Prize economist Dr. Harry Markowitz. We discuss that conversation, and how it ties in with my continued unease with deflation, Paul McCulley's recent essay, the lack of candor from the Federal Reserve, the implications of the dollar bear market, Iraq and more. It will make for a fast-paced e-letter this week, so let's jump right in.

Markowitz received his Nobel prize for a 1952 essay which marked the beginning of Modern Portfolio Theory....

The “All Iraq, All the Time” Economy

January 24, 2003

How, more than a few readers ask, can the economy continue to Muddle Through if I am right about the market eventually dropping another 40% before we get to the end of the secular bear market cycle? Won't such a massive destruction of wealth mean a depression? We look at that question, some thoughts on earnings, the world and a whole lot more this week.

Iraq, Oil and the Fed Printing Press

January 17, 2003

No sooner is my Muddle Through 2003 forecast out, than we get a barrage of data which gives cause for concern. Can we still Muddle Through with an increase in taxes (you read that right!), higher oil prices, more medical costs, and a slowing world economy? Is the Fed actually winning the War Against Deflation? We look at all that today, plus I answer a few critics of my forecast.

2003 Forecast

January 11, 2003

We cover the globe, currencies, the US economy, bonds, stocks, deflation, inflation, gold, oil and more!

For the last three years, making annual predictions has been relatively easy, at least as compared to this year. You try to discern the dominant theme for the year and then everything else usually flows from there. In 2000, it was an over-valued stock market. In August of 2000, the interest rate yield curve went negative, and as I wrote at length at the time, Federal Reserve studies...

Collectivized Risks

January 3, 2003

This week we are in for a very special edition of the Millennium Wave Online. I have persuaded my good friend Bill Bonner of Daily Reckoning fame to give us a special preview of his new book "The Soft Depression of the 21st Century: How to Survive the Crisis of Degenerate, Mass Capitalism," (working title) due out in September. In it, he and fellow Daily Reckoneer Addison Wiggin, argue that popular democracy, aging populations and bad economic theories doom the US and other Western economies...