Thoughts From the Frontline, August 2005

The Fed Targets Your Home

August 26, 2005

What is the relationship between housing prices and stock market forecasting? What will happen if the housing market begins to falter? Exactly what did Greenspan say about housing at Jackson Hole? We explore these topics and a whole lot more and hopefully we can tie them all together by the end of this letter as we meditate on the potential risk of the recent housing boom.

Let's start with forecasting. Every few weeks I get a wonderful letter from good friend James Montier, who is the...

What Will Cause the Next Recession?

August 19, 2005

It's a race to see what will be the cause, or maybe better put, what will be blamed for the next economic slowdown. Will it be oil and rising energy prices? What about a slowdown in the housing market? You can't count out the Fed raising interest rates as source of economic slowdown. If China slows down and thus has less money to invest in our bonds, will rates rise? There are so many potential culprits. We run through them and more as we try to peer into 2006.

One of my favorite...

The Greenspan Uncertainty Principle

August 12, 2005

This week we revisit our old friend, the Yield Curve. We look at what it may or may not be telling us, how the Conference Board has changed how they look at the yield curve as part of their leading economic indicators, and muse upon what Greenspan is really doing. There's lot of very important and interesting ground to cover, not the least of which is my concern about Fed policy.

But first, let me invite you to meet me in New Orleans at the New Orleans Investment Conference October...

The World Is Flat

August 5, 2005

I got home late last night from two weeks with the kids in Europe, and jet lag is kicking in. Since I should not be allowed to make any investment observations in this state, I am going to do something for which I constantly get requests and that I have wanted to do for quite some time. This week I give you my list of recommended books along with a little commentary on them, starting with a few new ones. Let's jump right in.