Thoughts From the Frontline, November 2003

The 22 Rules of Trading

November 28, 2003

This week we look at two very intriguing studies, one from James Montier where, safely perched in England, he forecasts future real returns on the US stock market. Then we give you Master Trader Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading, many of which you can apply to all sorts of life situations, as well as the markets.

I really need to thank these two gentlemen for letting me use their work almost verbatim, as I am finishing the last (!) chapter of my book this weekend and really need every...

Bras, Steel and Bush

November 21, 2003

Whenever I venture from my "assigned" space of economics and investing, and roam into the realm of politics, I am sure to offend more than a few readers. But today, I see the world of economics and politics meshing, as the threat of an international trade war is becoming more and more real. From Senators proposing insane 30% tariffs on the Chinese, (our new whipping boy, probably to the relief of Japan) to boneheaded steel tariffs, we put the economy of the world at risk. And the reasons are...

Your Inner Spock

November 14, 2003

Why do we continue to make the same classic investing mistakes, generation after generation, throughout the world, in all times and in every culture? It is as if history has no meaning for each new age, yet it is there for all to read. We explore this and more in today's letter.

But first, let me offer a few observations about the current mutual fund scandals. I find it interesting that the funds which are the target of investigations still have 90% of their assets. To illustrate this...

The Steroid Economy

November 8, 2003

Today's letter may be one of the more controversial, or at least debatable, letters I have written in some time. I take a very out of consensus position on interest rates. As promised last week, we deal with the question, "What ever happened to the Muddle Through Economy with the GDP is growing at 7.2%?" Is it time to abandon the concept? I think this week I will leave you a few things to think about, so let's get started.

First, let us recall Keynes' bon mot when asked about why he changed...