Thoughts From the Frontline, April 2019

How I Learned to Love the Debt

April 26, 2019

The US, Europe, and most of the developed world on are the road to Japanification. Like I wrote last week, we will see financial repression, ever increasing deficits, slower growth, etc. Essentially, the rest of us will begin to look like Japan with its astronomical deficits and ultra-dovish monetary policy.

The Rules Will Change but That’s (Probably) OK

April 19, 2019

“But the emperor has nothing at all on!” said a little child.

Japanified World Ahead

April 12, 2019

Regular readers may have noticed me slowly losing confidence in the economy. Your impression is correct and there’s a good reason for it, as I will explain today. The facts have changed so my conclusions are changing, too.

Capitalism Gone Wild

April 5, 2019

Recession is coming. We can debate the timing, but the economy will turn decisively downward at some point. My own analysis, looking at the data available on April 4, says recession isn’t likely this year but unfortunately looks very probable in 2020.