Thoughts From the Frontline, August 2003

Greenspan’s Uncertainty Principle

August 29, 2003

This week we are going to examine in some detail Alan Greenspan's speech given today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I was working on an entirely different letter when this speech hit my inbox. I think it is so important that I am going to start over in the middle of a letter, which I cannot remember ever doing.

For better or worse, Alan Greenspan is one of the most important men in the world. His views matter and are taken quite seriously by the market. This is one of Greenspan's more...

Manufacturing the Data

August 22, 2003

How can I talk about a mere Muddle Through Economy when manufacturing is rising, the Phillie Fed Index skyrockets, housing and new home construction is on fire, economists are predicting a healthy 3.5%+ GDP next quarter, unemployment claims dropped, the stimulus from tax cuts and mortgage refinancing is just now kicking in, business confidence indicators are rising, The Index of Leading Economic Indicators has risen for the 4th straight month, the dollar is rising and the stock market is...

Stupid Economist Tricks

August 15, 2003

This week we further explore the variation in economic forecasts and then finish with Part Three of "How the World Really Works" from my friend, Art Cashin. Many thanks to him for allowing me to use his work so that I could get a little R&R this summer. Next week it is back to the heat of Texas and full weekly letters.

I can't say enough nice things about Nova Scotia, but I will write some more about it later. This will not be the last summer I spend considerable time there. Yet, alas, I did...

Conflicting Opinions

August 8, 2003

What can we make of the huge variations in economic predictions by quite reasonable analysts? I briefly touch on the topic from my perch in Halifax where I am cool, if not calm or collected. We then go on to Part Two of Art Cashin's excellent essay on how the world of economics really works.

For the last few days, I have been catching up with the reports which accumulated in my email inbox while I was in Cape Breton with my bride. I have been struck by the veritable chasm between analysts...

The Velocity of Money

August 1, 2003

This week as I am in Nova Scotia, where my bride "suggests" I will be far removed from any internet access, I am pleased that my friend Art Cashin is allowing me to reproduce a series he has been writing about in his privately circulated "Morning Comments" that I think you will thoroughly enjoy. Art's thesis, and I agree, is that we may be at a very important "tipping point" in the global economy. To help his readers understand why that may be, he has written an essay explaining how banking,...