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Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, January 2021

Inflation and Broken Windows
  • January 29, 2021

Inflation and Broken Windows

I’m often asked if I foresee inflation or deflation. This week we had an “Ask Me Anything” session for Alpha Society members and it came up several times. Both are possible in their own ways, and frankly I feel a little funny telling people I think we will see both. I would just like to have a growing economy and dependable money that holds its value.

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Forecast 2021: The Stock Market
  • January 22, 2021

Forecast 2021: The Stock Market

This will be the third part of my 2021 Forecast Series. You can read the first two parts here and here. The general theme has been “On the Gripping Hand.” Science fiction writers imagined a three-handed alien race with a left hand, right hand, and a very strong Gripping Hand. 2021 is the year of the Gripping Hand, and COVID-19 is what’s gripping us. Making a forecast without the virus at its center is pointless.

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The Grip Tightens
  • January 15, 2021

The Grip Tightens

This is part two of my 2021 forecast series. I began last week (you can read it here) discussing a three-handed alien race envisioned by science fiction writers Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven. They had two regular hands and a third “gripping hand,” which though less dexterous, was far stronger. My analogy was that the COVID-19 vaccine has us in the Gripping Hand. Any forecast for 2021 must first consider this decidedly “known unknown.”

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Year of the Gripping Hand
  • January 8, 2021

Year of the Gripping Hand

This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021.

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