Thoughts From the Frontline, January 2005

Insiders Send a Signal

January 28, 2005

Is the US stock market rolling over? What are insider investors telling us? Are there sectors that might run counter to the overall trend? We look at a variety of topics this week, I point some of my hedge fund and institutional managers to an excellent source for information on insider investing and point the rests of my readers to a new book which shows you how to separate the "Vital Few from the Trivial Many." All in all, it should be an informative letter.

But before we delve into...

China: One Coin, Two Faces

January 21, 2005

This week we begin what will be a series of occasional letters on China. The topic, like the country, is so vast that it cannot be adequately dealt with in one short letter. Today, we will take a long range view into the future, looking at how China will develop vis-a-vis the developed world.

There is a mountain of material on China, as I can personally attest to, having gone through hundreds of pages of reports, essays, and data in the past few weeks. Much of the writing falls into...

The Problem of the Endgame

January 14, 2005

Last week we looked at my 2005 Forecast. This week, we ponder the far more interesting question of where I could (or will be!) be wrong and why and what would be the consequences.

This week's topic came about as I was talking on Tuesday with Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management Company. He and Dr. Lacy Hunt had just published their 2005 Forecast and I considered it quite thoughtful. I called to ask if we could use it for next Monday's Outside the Box.

Forecast 2005: The See-Saw Economy

January 7, 2005

Once again it's time for me to demonstrate the foolhardy part of my nature by putting to electronic pen my forecast for 2005. I spend more research time on this one letter than on any four or five combined, simply reading hundreds of pages of research, looking at mountains of data all in an effort to try and catch the gist of the markets. It is a daunting task, but one to which I actually look forward, as it challenges the mind like few other endeavors.

If I go into as much detail as...