Thoughts From the Frontline, August 2002

The Housing Bubble Blues

August 30, 2002

Housing, deflation, bonds, and the dollar are all inextricably linked, if you connect the dots between numerous studies which have come out in the past few weeks. We'll do that and more as we explore the implications of even a small housing bubble and what it will mean to you.

I frequently get email from readers asking whether they should buy or sell a house in a particular area. The short answer is, "I don't know." Today I am going to give you the tools which will help you answer this...

Puzzle Me This, Mr. Market

August 23, 2002

I confess. I like jig-saw puzzles. My bride indulges this quaint past time by buying me a new puzzle from time to time. This last month, I must have done something bad, however, as she purchased a particularly fiendish puzzle, where too many pieces look the same. It is proving quite the challenge.

I bring this personal anecdote up, because the recent economic news is in somewhat the same vein. Trying to develop useful themes from the recent spate of very interesting statistics is quite...

If It Quacks Like Japan

August 16, 2002

Today we examine several fundamental and criticaly questions, to see if they give us come clues as to the direction of the economy and the stock markets:

"Why do we have no inflation since the Fed has been growing the money supply at very high levels for a very long time?"; the ever popular, "Is the Fed pushing on a string?" and "Is the United States headed down the same path as Japan?"

Under the ‘Macro-Scope’

August 9, 2002

This week I have asked Greg Weldon, whom I frequently refer to, to give us a few examples of how seemingly different economic trends actually fit together, like pieces of a puzzle. If you can figure out how the puzzle pieces fit, you can develop ideas to profit from the picture they create. Greg is very good at seeing economic relationships and finding ways to make money from theme.

Every day, Greg gets up at 3 am and starts to work, so that by the time I come in, I usually have my first...

What Expensing Options Will Do

August 1, 2002

What would real profits be for NASDAQ companies if options were expensed? What would the stock price be for the biggest companies in America if investors started to price them based upon correct earnings figures? I give you the numbers in today's E-letter, plus we look at why the dollar is rallying, the economy and more. It should all make for interesting reading.