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Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, May 2002

Investing’s Double Standard
  • May 31, 2002

Investing’s Double Standard

I get a lot of reader questions and comments along the following lines:

"John, how can you believe we are in a Muddle Through Economy when (pick a statistic) is so strong? Look at this indicator. Don't you think we are finally in a strong recovery and a new bull market?"

Then, I get even more like this: "John, how can you believe we are in a Muddle Through Market when (pick a statistic) is so disastrous? Look at this number. Don't you think we are headed for a stock market crash?"

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Gravity and the Dollar
  • May 24, 2002

Gravity and the Dollar

As I predicted several months ago, the dollar is beginning to show signs of real weakness against the euro and a host of other currencies. It has the potential to happen even faster than the gradual process I originally thought it would. But what does it mean for you and your investments? Today, we are going to look at some of the implications of a weaker dollar, whether or not it means inflation or, even worse, stagflation is in our future and what the implications of a weaker dollar will mean...

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The End of Disinflation
  • May 17, 2002

The End of Disinflation

I must confess I like to work jigsaw puzzles. If you have ever worked on one, you know there are times when the pieces come together, and you can begin to see a major part of the puzzle. There is a certain sense of satisfaction when that happens.

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The Meaning of “Excess”
  • May 10, 2002

The Meaning of “Excess”

Over the past few months, I have commented about how large corporations are using their company pension funds to bolster their corporate earnings. Under accounting rules, if a pension fund has "excess" funding, the excess can go to the bottom line of the corporation. Nothing particularly wrong with that, except the meaning of the word "excess" is as loose as Bill Clinton's definition of "is." Today we will visit an amazing statistic that clearly shows just how deceitful, large and widespread...

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Risk Premiums Get Scary
  • May 3, 2002

Risk Premiums Get Scary

What a week. A whirlwind tour through Southern California visiting clients has left me quite tired, but driving through ridiculous freeway traffic has given me a lot of thinking time. I needed it, as I have been meditating in the implications of a very important new article in the AIMR Financial Analysts Journal. It is a lengthy and devastating analysis of what investors should expect by way of returns in the stock market over the next decade or so. I will do my best to give you the...

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