Thoughts From the Frontline, November 2002

What the Fed Believes

November 28, 2002

Today we are going to look at a very important speech by new Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke. I think this is one of the more important letters I have written in a while. The speech has received a lot of publicity for some of it's speculations about potential Fed policy. Some seem to find very dire and immediate negative implications in the speech. I, frankly, do not.

However, I do think the speech is important because it gives us insight into the nature of the operational (and...

Sucker Rally or New Bull?

November 22, 2002

Today we are going to look at the world economy, muse on why the dollar is holding its own and when and why it will drop. Then I make a few comments on the current stock market rally. Finally, in a departure from the normal letter, I am going to close the regular e-letter, but add a PS in the form of an essay on the risk of derivatives for those who find the subject interesting.

The US Muddles Through

The world economy is clearly not healthy. Let's look at the US, and then we will go...

Will You Be Able To Retire?

November 15, 2002

Today we turn our attention to the question of retirement: Will the Boomer Generation be able to retire on time? Will Social Security go bankrupt? Is Harry Dent in his book The Roaring 2000s right when he asserts that we will have a boom until approximately 2008-9 because Boomers are saving and spending? And then watch as things go bust (an actual depression) because Boomers start selling stocks and retiring?

Valuation Madness

November 8, 2002

This week we will look at a fascinating debate between two well-known investment analysts, I show you how to spot a stock market cheerleader, and ponder the significance (if any) of what the surprising GOP win of the Senate portends for our investments.

I am on the road as I begin to write this week's letter, speaking at the National Endowments and Foundations Symposium on the prospects for the economy and the markets for the coming year. Interestingly, when I spoke at this conference last...

Greenspan: Fight Deflation Now

November 1, 2002

Today we examine the deluge of month end data, which continues to confirm we are in the Muddle Through Economy. I politely respond to George Gilder (even after he called me a Keynesian and an economist) and look at the very long term implications of tax policy. There is a lot of very interesting ground to cover, so let's get started.

As long time readers know, I am in the process of writing a book called Absolute Returns . The basic premise is that we are in a long term secular bear market...