Thoughts From the Frontline, November 2004

Things That Go Bump in My Worry Closet

November 19, 2004

From ghoulies and ghosties
And long-leggedy beasties
And things that go bump in the night,
Good Lord, deliver us!
--Old Scottish Prayer

Coming back from Canada this morning, where the Canadian dollar is on a breath-taking rise, and reading several lengthy (and very conflicting) reports on the international currency situation, I feel compelled to weigh in with a few observations. Basically, the numbers of things that are out of balance in the world are increasing. How long can the current...

Sometimes They Do Ring A Bell

November 12, 2004

With many sub-market indexes hitting new highs, and given the recent performance of the market, how can I maintain we are still in a long-term secular bear market? Shouldn't we get back in, as so many advise? That is a reasonable question, and the subject of today's letter.

We will start with a few quotes, and then move on to my commentary. A. M. Clifford writes:

"We are witnessing today a most extraordinary financial phenomenon, in the form of a Stock Market which has advanced with a...

The Next Bush Recession

November 6, 2004

This week we enter the realm controversial. The election is over, and now reality will impinge its often unpleasant odor over the political landscape of the hopes and dreams of all sides of the debates. I explore the world of Republican political reality and how it will be affected by the economy over the next four years. We look at Bush's national agenda and muse upon whether it can come to pass. This will, of course, be guaranteed to annoy most of my readers, as those who oppose Bush will not...