Thoughts From the Frontline, December 2002

Whose Investment Prediction Should You Believe?

December 27, 2002

"The ability to see that some things cannot be foreseen is a very necessary quality." -- Jean Jacque Rousseau.

It's the season when so many analysts participate in a group masochistic ritual: the annual yearly predictions. Like lemmings, they rush to the edge and leap. That they are so often wrong does not seem to deter them from making the same mistake the next year. And there they differ from lemmings, in that they live to repeat the act every year.

Why Demographics Tell Us the Market Will Fall

December 20, 2002

As we come to the close of the year, my Christmas gift to you is an analysis of some very interesting research on the connection between demographics and the stock market. It falls in line with much of our recent investigations, and adds a further piece to the puzzle as to where the eventual bottom of the stock market lies and when we might get there. For most investors, knowing where the stock market is going and when it will get there might be useful. Then I show you how you can get involved...

The Doom and Gloom Fed

December 13, 2002

Today we explore the very interesting differences between what the Fed told us about its last interest rate cut and what they actually said in the meeting. Then we look at my analysis of how Japan can have deflation when the money supply grows 21%, which will annoy the gold bugs among my readership. Then we look at why gold is really going up, and why it will continue to do so, which will make gold bugs happy. All that and more, as along the way we look at why it is so hard to predict anything...

Fighting Deflation at Point Blank Range

December 6, 2002

My letter last week on Fed Governor Bernanke's speech drew a great deal of comment from readers. I still read every one of your letters to me, even though I cannot answer them all.

Bill Gross of Pimco fame also weighed in on the implications of the speech this last week. Because I think this speech represents a defining moment for investors and our economy, we are going to touch upon points of it again, but from a different angle. I shall attempt to show why I disagree with some of the...