Thoughts From the Frontline, July 2003

Greenscam: The View From Europe

July 26, 2003

This week we review what I learned on my trip to Geneva; we look at a way to invest in the Chinese Renminbi; I offer some thoughts on master strategist Paul McCulley latest essay; I ponder the implications of Bill Bonner's soon to be released best-seller; and, I get more concerned (and vocal) about Greenspan and Fed policy. It should make for a thought-provoking and interesting letter.

The Most Unlikely Action

July 18, 2003

This week we look at what Greenspan really said and what he didn't say; the real reason why the bond market reacted so violently (not what the headlines would lead us to believe); what History tells us about the volatility of the bond markets and what we can expect in the future. It should make for a lively letter, as I wrap up the week early to catch a plane to Paris. Stay with me, as this letter is going to give you some real insight into the bond markets, a "secret" called the "6/50 Rule,"...

Poker at the Federal Reserve

July 11, 2003

Is this a critical time in the bond market or are we simply back to where we were a few months ago before the recent madness? If it was temporary insanity, what caused it? Why is the dollar rising? Why have the Japanese sold more foreign bonds in the past few weeks than in the past few years? Who is buying those bonds? If the money supply is growing at breath-taking rates, why is gold languishing? If the economic data is so dismal then why are stocks rising, setting higher highs with each...

Mid-2003 Forecast: Muddle Through*

July 4, 2003

I promised in my January 2003 forecast I would re-visit my predictions, giving you a mid-year update. Faster than I can believe, that time is upon us. Once again I dare to venture where wiser minds will not trod: into the territory of economic predictions.