Thoughts from the Frontline: Tag = "Inflation"

Housing Hiccups
  • July 21, 2023

Housing Hiccups

While inflation is technically about general price levels, in practice we use it to describe living costs. That’s why the benchmarks measure consumer prices and personal consumption expenditures. These are where higher prices hurt because they apply to everyone. Other measures like the Producer Price Index have valuable information but are less immediately relevant to most people.

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Flip Side of the Inflation Coin
  • July 14, 2023

Flip Side of the Inflation Coin

The market, and maybe all of us, would like to believe the latest 3% annual CPI number was a harbinger of ever-lower inflation, and we are on the road to 2% inflation by year end. I would argue, “Not so fast.” Inflation is far from dead, and CPI will likely go slightly up between now and the end of the year. The Fed has multiple problems we will examine over the next few weeks.

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Endless Intervention
  • June 30, 2023

Endless Intervention

National leaders are (or should be) reluctant to enter wars because, once begun, they are often hard to end. You could be bogged down for years, vainly trying plan after plan as the damage accumulates.

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A Funny Kind of Recession
  • June 23, 2023

A Funny Kind of Recession

I’ve often thought it would be fun to convene a therapy group of weather forecasters and economic forecasters. Both face the same frustration: Everybody wants a clear, simple answer they can’t possibly give, because they don’t know. Then they get blamed for being wrong anyway.

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A Skip, Not a Stop
  • June 16, 2023

A Skip, Not a Stop

A year ago, the US Consumer Price Index was rising at an almost 9% annual rate. The Federal Reserve was trying to change that trend with tighter policy. But it wasn’t just the Fed. All of us—businesses, consumers, everyone—responded to the pain.

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A Rosie Forecast, and More
  • May 5, 2023

A Rosie Forecast, and More

World economic growth is slowing. That’s so obvious, very few will disagree. I suppose there are people out there predicting imminent 1990s-like expansion, but they are few and far between. If recession begins soon, it will be the most anticipated one in history.

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Still Rethinking the Fed
  • April 21, 2023

Still Rethinking the Fed

Back before clocks went digital, you could say “a stopped clock is right twice a day” and even youngsters would know what you meant. A mechanism could be nonfunctional but occasionally correct.

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Inflationary Choices
  • April 14, 2023

Inflationary Choices

Spotting trend changes is the key to economic forecasting. They don’t happen often. Most of the time, this year will be similar to last year. The pace varies but the overall trend continues… until it doesn’t.

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Thinking the Unthinkable
  • April 7, 2023

Thinking the Unthinkable

“Thinking the Unthinkable.” What does that phrase bring to mind? To me it suggests a situation that has become so stressed you are forced to consider undesirable solutions.

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