• July 7, 2023

Muddled Optimism

“A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest…”

—The Boxer, Paul Simon, 1969

• March 10, 2023

Thousand-Word Equivalents

If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.

• April 23, 2021

Stumbling to Scarcity

In economic forecasting, reality is usually somewhere between the extremes. The best-case and worst-case rarely happen. That’s why, when they do happen, markets react so quickly to the “missed expectations.”

• March 26, 2021

The 1970s Never Ended

Big economic storms are rare and usually end quickly, but they tend to have long-lasting effects. Today I want to talk about a storm 50 years ago that still affects us now. Important things happened in the 1970s.