“I am sure the Euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”

- Romano Prodi, EU Commission President, December 2001

Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro knew what they were doing. They knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted. They accepted that as the price of European unity. But now the payment is coming due, and it is far larger than they probably thought.

This week we turn our eyes first to Europe and then the US, and ask about the possibility of a yet another credit crisis along the lines of late 2008. I then outline a few steps you might want to consider now rather than waiting until the middle of a crisis. It is possible we can avoid one but, as I admit, whether we do (and the extent of such a crisis) depends on the political leaders of the developed world (the US, Europe, and Japan) making the difficult choices and doing what is necessary. And in either case, there are some areas of investing you clearly want to avoid. Finally, I turn to that watering-hole favorite, the weather, and offer you a window into the coming seasons. Can we catch a break here? There is a lot to cover, so we will jump right in.

Evelyn Browning Gariss is one of the world’s greatest climatologists. Her letter is a must-read. For those who wish to subscribe, you can go to www.browningnewsletter.com and either use PayPal or a credit card. This winter we are sadly being set up for what may be a repeat of last year’s weather in the Southern Hemisphere, and rain at the wrong time in the US, during harvest. You can read the latest issue for free by entering your email below.

 

It is time once again to throw caution and wisdom to the wind and actually make my 11^th annual forecast. I have to admit this is the most stressful letter I write each year. I do at least 5-10 times more research and thinking about this issue than any other. On a positive note, this may be one of the more optimistic forecast letters I have done in a long time. But there are some asterisks, as always. We will survey the world, trying to peer through the fog of the future. There are some very interesting side trails we will want to explore. Did you know some events in Russia could have real ramifications for inflation in China, the US, and the world? I pay attention to the background details and bring them to you. So settle back as we tour the world.

But first, as you are fastening your seat belts, I am proud to announce that FINALLY we are a full go on my new web sites, which have been in soft launch for a few weeks. The main site is now www.johnmauldin.com, where you can access everything I do, including Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box, as well as ten years’ worth of archives.

There’s a lot that’s new, as Tiffani is dragging me into the new world of Internet 2.0. Our old site was so ’90s. Now we are the cutting edge. Everything is done in HTML 5, and we are one of the first and few financially oriented sites to use this new code. Very crisp and clean.

But more importantly to you, we have ways for you to interact with me and the “Mauldin Community.” You can comment on each weekly Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box, and I will read your comments. There is a forum where you can join the community and discuss topics I bring up, whether you agree with me or not. I have always contended that my readers are the smartest, most well-informed of any writer’s, and now you can benefit from your collective wisdom.

The only general rule is that you have to be civil and have some sense of decorum.
At least on the small part of the Web I own, there will be a sense of dignity and probity. You can disagree with me or some other commenter to your heart’s content, and I encourage it, as that is the way I (and we) learn; but no flame mails, no casting aspersions on anyone’s character because of the views they hold.

I will also be doing voice podcasts that we call The Mauldin Minute. And you can view my latest media spots. Want to ask me a question? There’s a spot for them in the upper left-hand corner of our home page, and each week I will pick 1-3 questions to respond to. Rule: it has to be a question that does not need a book chapter or an e-letter to answer!

We also have a new site called The Mauldin Circle, where you can find investment professionals around the world who can help you find appropriate investments, generally in the alternative space, which can add some real diversification to your portfolio. (If you have signed up for the accredited investor letter in the past, you do not need to do so again. In this regard, I am president of and a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, member FINRA.)

If you have a minute, go to www.johnmauldin.com, put in your email address, and sign up. (You won’t get two copies of my letters if you are already on the list!) Tiffani and I really would like your feedback on the new site.

And now on to the topics of Forecast 2011, in no particular order.

For those who wish to subscribe you can go to www.browningnewsletter.com and either use PayPal or use a credit card. This is clearly not a letter for everyone, but for those of us who try to get a look at all the pieces of the puzzle as we figure out what the picture is, this is a latter which allows us to look at a piece which is often ignored, but is very important. It is very technical, and the initial reading may seem complex, but over time Ibn Browning’s daughter, Evelyn, has been able to give me a real education in climatology. Bundle up out there in the north!