Thoughts From the Frontline, Commercial Paper

2 posts tagged with “Commercial Paper”.

The Curve in the Road

October 3, 2008

The "Bailout Plan" was passed. Will it work? The answer depends on what your definition of "work" is. If by work you mean no more government intervention and no further costly programs and a functioning market, then the answer is no. But there are things it will do. This week I try to help you see what might lie ahead around the Curve in the Road. We look at how the rescue plan will function, see what is happening in the economy, and finally muse as to whether Muddle Through is really in our future. It will make for an interesting, if not very upbeat, letter, so strap in. I would like your promise to not shoot the messenger. I am just trying to give you some of my thoughts as to what may lie in our future. And remember, as you read this, we will get through it. There are better days "a'coming."

But first, a few housekeeping items. Let me welcome some 200,000 new readers from EQUITIES Magazine. I have recently joined EQUITIES Magazine as a regular contributing editor. My column, Back to the Frontline, is featured in both their print publication and at equitiesmagazine.com. I am excited to be associated with this esteemed magazine with a rich history covering the global markets for over 57 years.

They've once again agreed to offer any reader of mine a free subscription to EQUITIES Magazine. For those who did not take advantage of the free subscription the first time, here is your chance. You can go to http://www.equitiesmagazine.com/mwi and simply register to get the magazine sent to your home or office. There is also a link to an interview I did in April with them. They have a lot of content and free resources like "live" real-time stock quotes and "live" real-time portfolio managers. Check it out!


Betting on Financial Armageddon

September 19, 2008

My Dad used to tell me there is no accounting for standards when looking at something that seemed odd. Today, we have faulty standards for accounting that are ripping apart the fabric of the world's economy. How can a security that has a high probability of full repayment be downgraded from AA to junk levels? What we will explore today tell us a lot about why we are in the crisis state of affairs. Since I wrote you last Friday, the financial landscape of the world has changed even more. And what will happen this weekend will change it even more. And our kids will be paying for it for a long, long time. At the end I offer a few thoughts on the events, and if there is time my thoughts on the new short covering rules. All in all, it should make for an instructive and interesting letter. We'll jump right in with no "but first."

I was invited to an invitation only presentation to a room of chief executives of a number of small Texas banks made by Rich Berg of Performance Trust Capital Partners this week (http://ptcp.performancetrust.com). He graciously gave me permission to go over the main points of his presentation. I think you will find it eye-opening to say the least. You probably have seen Rich, as he is all over the media lately.

Let's jump back 18 months. I spent several letters going over how subprime mortgages were sold and then securitized. Let's quickly review. Huge Investment Bank (HIB) would encourage mortgage banks all over the country to make home loans, often providing the capital, and then HIB would purchase these loans and package them into large securities called Residential Mortgage Backed Securities or RMBS. They would take loans from different mortgage banks and different regions. They generally grouped the loans together as to their initial quality as in prime mortgages, ALT-A and the now infamous subprime mortgages. They also grouped together second lien loans, which were the loans generally made to get 100% financing or cash-out financing as home owners borrowed against the equity in their homes.