Watch special video of Neil Howe, historian, economist, and demographer, as he discusses the Four Keys for Decoding America's Future. This fascinating presentation was filmed at the Strategic Investment Conference 2011 in La Jolla, CA.

This is the text of a speech given at the Accelerating Change 2004 conference at Stanford University. The conference organizers asked me to look out over the next 3-4 decades and offer my thoughts as to what the future may look like. A somewhat daunting task, and one guaranteed to failure, as the future always seems to surprise, I nevertheless tried to peer into that dark glass.

What of the future? Can we really stand here in 2004 and have some idea of what will transpire in the next 2-3 decades? Looking at which things will not change will give us some clues as to what will change, and some ideas as to the future in which most of us will assuredly live.

Last week we talked briefly about some of the problems surrounding Social Security, and especially the possibility that the deficit problems may be worse than we thought because of the trend towards (on average) living longer.

But a large part of the current debate misses what I think should be the real point, and that point is the focus of this week's letter. Everyone assumes that if they work hard and save they will be able to retire. While a sad number of people do not plan for retirement, those who do make assumptions about what type of retirement they will be able to afford with their savings, pensions and Social Security based upon historical performance of the markets.

This week we will look at the very long term trends in demographics. I find this whole topic fascinating and one that is fraught with investment implications, not to mention the basic issues of life with which we will soon be dealing.

But first, I want to bring a couple of items to your attention. Last week, I lead off with a few paragraphs from a 1946 article from Life Magazine talking about how we won the war in Europe but were losing the peace. I was not trying to make some comparison between Iraq and Europe after their respective wars. I clearly know the situations were, and are, radically different. The success in Europe in no ways predicates success in Iraq. The point I was trying to make was that the press coverage was similar: focusing on the more emotionally impacting negative aspects of the events rather than the more mundane successes.

As we come to the close of the year, my Christmas gift to you is an analysis of some very interesting research on the connection between demographics and the stock market. It falls in line with much of our recent investigations, and adds a further piece to the puzzle as to where the eventual bottom of the stock market lies and when we might get there. For most investors, knowing where the stock market is going and when it will get there might be useful. Then I show you how you can get involved in the War on Terror from the comfort of your living room, while saving lives and helping the good guys.

Today we look at why oil prices are likely heading down, how brilliant economists come to the wrong conclusions and of course a few comments on the recent market action. Let's jump right in.

More Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Since I criticized the trade policies of President Bush last week, maybe I can work up enough nerve to critique a recent article by one of the more well-known economists in the country, Arthur Laffer, of Laffer Curve fame.