"We appear to be entering a period of serious stagflation with sharply rising expected and actual inflation combined with large downside risks to growth and employment."

"I would argue that what we are seeing is an acceleration of expected consumer price inflation in the context of a sharp expansion in global liquidity. It is hardly surprising that the prices of those commodities, such as oil, for which the short-run price elasticities of supply and demand are low move upwards strongly when there is a rise in expected general inflation. The oil market is a very convenient vehicle to speculate on expectations of higher levels of general price inflation. Hence my view is that the 40% jump in oil prices that has occurred over the past few months - roughly the period during which financial conditions have been loosened sharply - is a reflection of the expectation of either an acceleration of global inflation, or a depreciation of the US dollar, or some combination of the two."

- Malcolm D Knight, General Manager, Bank for International Settlements

It was only five years ago that the central bankers of the world, and especially the Fed, was worried about deflation. Ben Bernanke was introduced to the world at large with his famous helicopter speech about how the Fed could deal with a deflationary environment. Who would have thought that what passed as humor to a group of economists would be taken so seriously by the rest of the world?

Today the worry on the mind of investors and central bankers is inflation. It is causing havoc with the markets. In this week's letter, we look at whether we should be worried about inflation, take a mid-year check on the economy, muse on the malaise in the stock market and offer a very contrarian possibility for a positive shock to the world. It should make for a thought-provoking letter.

This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how the Fed thinks about inflation.

There is considerable angst in the press about inflation and recession conspiring to bring us to a repeat of the 1970s woes of stagflation. And the economic data can certainly be interpreted as warranting such concern. This week we look at several different definitions of inflation. How can the Fed (in the form of both Fed chairman Bernanke and governor Kohn giving quite dovish presentations) dismiss inflation? Aren't they supposed to make sure that prices are stable? Just look at their European counterparts who talk tough on inflation and then "walk their talk."

There are those who suggest the Fed should do the same. There is no easy answer, but I will try to lay out the conflicting concerns and explain why the Fed is going to cut and cut again, as I have been writing for months. Let's put on our thinking caps, gentle reader, as we delve into some arcane but very important lessons.

From ghoulies and ghosties
And long-leggedy beasties
And things that go bump in the night,
Good Lord, deliver us!

-Traditional Scottish Prayer

It's been a long time since we have looked in my worry closet, but there are definitely bumping sounds coming from behind the door. While largely over-looked, Bank of America closed down an "enhanced cash" fund and did the unthinkable and broke the buck. But the real story is even worse. I make the suggestion that you look at your cash funds and see what is in its portfolio. You may want to redeem ahead of the crowd.

This week we look at inflation. Is it just over 2%, giving the Fed room to cut rates, or will it be closer to 4% by the next FOMC meeting, making a rate cut problematic? How do they get those numbers? When and how can two opposite things be true at the same time? The answer depends on how many dimensions you are living in when you are asking the question. The Fed is going to be faced with a very difficult decision at its next meeting, and there results of there deliberations will be felt by you.

But first, an observation about a milestone passed last week. I started this letter 7 years ago with about 2,000 names and it has grown to where it is sent to more than 1,000,000 of my closest friends each week. For the last year, this letter has been translated each week into Chinese and posted on a Chinese version of Thoughts from the Frontline web site by my Chinese assistant Coryne Wei.

This last week we passed 1,000 subscribers that get the Chinese version. I know that is small, but it is a beginning. It will be interesting to see how it grows over the years. If you would like to get this letter in Chinese, you can go to www.frontlinethoughts.cn and subscribe.

The GDP data released Friday suggests the economy seems to be slowing. So naturally the stock market surges forward in a very strong move, convinced the bull market is back. After all, how can the Fed raise rates in a slowing economy? And if the Fed is not raising rates, then it follows, does it not, that the stock market will rise? Or so the logic of a 119-point rise, tantalizingly close to a new high for the Dow, seems to suggest. A review of the data says that may not be case, however. This week we take a look at the economy, housing, and inflation, with a view to pondering whether stagflation will return in earnest. It should make for an interesting letter.

But first, Andy Kessler's new book The End of Medicine that I wrote about three weeks ago seems to have struck a nerve, with both doctors and entrepreneurs. Feedback from readers is running quite positive, but with some very decisive disagreements from doctors denying that changes in medicine are needed or will happen, countered by enthusiastic entrepreneurs who are working on DNA detection chips, on blood tests to detect the likelihood of a stroke in the next year, and on imaging techniques to find all sorts of disease early. Andy tells me his feedback from the book is running hot, with some name calling from doctors but lots of business plans for early detection and even a few for next-generation eye surgery and stomach stapling. It's great to see that medicine is not a static business. No matter what the business model, there will always be entrepreneurs who seek out change, and we'll all be better off for it. I love to get your responses, by the way.

The economy seems to be slowing. Will this be a mid-cycle slowdown as it has been the last two decades or will it evolve into a recession? In either event, does it presage a bear market in equities? Or is this just another oversold buying opportunity, a gift courtesy of panic selling because of the Israeli-Lebanon situation? If you follow the markets with any sense of history, we do in fact live in interesting times.

But before we jump into our main topics, let's turn our eyes to Israel and Lebanon.

This week's events have made it clear why as investors you need to be able to get a handle on world events. My single best source for commentary on geopolitics is George Friedman and Stratfor.com. ABC News recently said they are able to predict world-changing events in ways that no one else can. They are consistently ahead of the curve with their thoughtful analysis of events all over the world. I caught up with George this afternoon and discussed the situation with him.