I am neither a market timer nor the son of a market timer. I left my office in the Texas Rangers ballpark this year, and they went to the World Series. I bought Dallas Cowboys season tickets for the first time in 50 years, as they went down in flames. But I do know a few very good timers, and they are sending out warnings. Today, we look at a few of these, as it might pay to hedge some of your equity portfolio as we go into the New Year. I also answer some questions as to my view of the municipal bond market, given the 60 Minutes report of last week. The answers may surprise you. And as we approach the end of the year, I suggest a place where your help is most needed. I will try to keep it shorter, as there are more important things at this time of the year than the markets.

A little housekeeping. I will not be doing an Outside the Box next Monday or an e-letter next Friday. I am off on a little R&R with my youngest son. But I will be back in full swing come the first of the year and will do my annual forecast issue the first Friday evening in January.

The news is somewhat "All Greece, All the Time," but most of the pieces miss the more critical elements, and in today's letter we will look at what I think those are, as well as at the important point that Greece is a precursor of a new era of sovereign risk. Plus, we glance at a few rather silly recent comments from economists. It will make for a very interesting discussion.

A few weeks ago I mentioned my friend Sir Walt Ratterman, who was in Haiti at the time of the earthquake. Long-time readers know that every Christmas I ask you to make a donation to Knightsbridge and projects that Walt runs. You have been very generous over the years. Tragically, they have found Walt's body. For those interested, I will provide a few details about this true hero, toward the conclusion of the letter.

Before we get into the meat of the letter, I want to give you a chance to register for my 6th (where do the years go?!) annual Strategic Investment Conference, cosponsored with my friends at Altegris Investments. The conference will be held April 22-24 and, as always, in La Jolla, California. The speaker lineup is powerful. Already committed are Dr. Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Dr. Niall Ferguson, and George Friedman, as well as your humble analyst. We are talking with several other equally exciting speakers and expect those to firm up shortly.

Look at that lineup. These are the guys who got the calls right over the past few years. They called the housing crisis, the credit bubble, and the recession. And, in my opinion, these are some of the best in the world at giving us ideas about where we are headed.

Last week we delved into the uncertainties that face us and that make forecasting for 2010 problematical. Will the government actually increase taxes as much as they say, with unemployment still likely to be at 10%? Or will cooler heads prevail? Would such an increase cause a recession? Will the markets anticipate the effects of such a major increase in advance? How will the mortgage market react when the Fed stops buying mortgage securities at the end of March? There are so many things in the air, and today we explore more of them, as I continue (perhaps foolishly) to try and peer into what is a very cloudy crystal ball.

But first, and far more important, is the tragedy that is unfolding in Haiti. Long-time readers know that several times a year I mention in this letter my very good friend Walt Ratterman, who volunteers his time going all over the world to install solar-power systems for hospitals and clinics, along with other relief efforts. My readers have been very generous over the years to Knightsbridge and their relief efforts. Walt and other members of Knightsbridge literally go into places where if they were caught by the government they would simply be shot (as in Burma). In Afghanistan, before our troops went in, the Taliban put a very hefty price on his head as he brought food and medicine to the northern tribes. Pakistan, Sudan, Darfur, Sri Lanka after the tsunami, in rebel-held territory, to bring medicine when no one else could get through - the hell-holes of the world. He and I talk frequently about the wisdom of taking such risks, and he cheerfully replies that someone has to. There are people dying.

When we talked just a few weeks ago he mentioned he was going to Haiti. At least, I said, that was one place where no one would be shooting at him. He had been there several times. And then we find a different type of uncertainty rearing its head. After all the places he had been where the danger was fellow human beings, this occasion found him in the courtyard of the Hotel Montana, minutes before the earthquake hit. There were teams on the ground the next morning, specifically looking for him, but as of Friday evening he has not been found. We are hopeful, because they are still finding survivors at the hotel.

His friends from Knightsbridge will be going there to assist in the recovery. Medical teams from Knightsbridge are going in early next week, and another experienced team will follow later in the week. These are people who know what to do and how to get it done.

A few of you who have done this type of work may want to contact Ed Artis (see below) to see if you can be of service (especially medical). As I have often written, these are the good guys. They pay their own way and have no office overhead. It is a total volunteer effort. But they do need money for medicines, supplies, etc., and transport to get them there.

Consumer spending was much stronger than thought in November, yet Circuit City Stores Inc., Best Buy Co. and other retailers that warned of a slump in purchases. A private report today showed consumer confidence slid to the lowest level in more than two years in December. The stock market chooses to see all things bullish, and so it powers ever upward. This week we take a brief look at the consumer, recent "shock and awe" central bank actions, money supply and more, trying to see how it all fits together.

But first, let's quickly turn our attention to a practical way we can help save the lives of those who are desperately suffering in Darfur and Myanmar. Over the years my readers have generously supported the work of a very special group of guys who help bring aid to places where it is the most difficult, if not dangerous, to reach.

Knightsbridge International is a small group of volunteers who go to places that are not safe but the needs for help is critical. Like the Knights of old, who ran hospitals and relief efforts, these modern day knights go to where the need is the greatest. They took food and medicine to northern Afghanistan before the troops went in (very dangerous!). They went to rebel held territory in Sri Lanka after the tsunami when no one else could get medicine and help in. Whether it's driving in to rescue nuns in Rwanda (fascinating story!), or taking solar power for clinics in Myanmar, Water Purification Units and medicine to Darfur, and a lot more, they go where other groups fear to tread. They have no political or religious agendas, just the drive to get aid to where it can do the most good.